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Migration and the Equilibrium Prevalence of Infectious Diseases

Author

Listed:
  • Alice MESNARD

    (City University London and Institute for Fiscal Studies)

  • Paul SEABRIGHT

    (Toulouse School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper models how migration both influences and responds to differences in disease prevalence between cities and shows how the possibility of migration away from high-prevalence areas affects long-run steady state disease prevalence. We develop a dynamic framework where migration responds to the prevalence of disease, to the costs of migration and to the costs of living. The model explores how pressure for migration in response to differing equilibrium levels of disease prevalence generates differences in city characteristics such as land rents. Competition for scarce housing in low-prevalence areas can create segregation, with disease concentrated in high-prevalence “sinks”. We show that policies affecting migration costs affect the steady-state disease prevalences across cities. In particular, migration can reduce steady-state disease incidence in low-prevalence areas while having no impact on prevalence in high-prevalence areas. This suggests that, in some circumstances, public health measures may need to avoid discouraging migration away from high-disease areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Alice MESNARD & Paul SEABRIGHT, 2016. "Migration and the Equilibrium Prevalence of Infectious Diseases," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 1-26, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvde:v:82:y:2016:i:1:p:1-26
    DOI: 10.1017/dem.2015.12
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    Cited by:

    1. Nakamura, Nobuyuki & Suzuki, Aya, 2021. "COVID-19 and the intentions to migrate from developing countries: Evidence from online search activities in Southeast Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Infectious diseases; Public health;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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