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Impacto sobre el bienestar social atribuido al fenómeno El Nino (ENOS) y al proceso de cambio climático. Un análisis sobre el mercado de energía colombiano

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  • José Guillermo Ariza Estévez

Abstract

Resumen Artículo que desarrolla y hace uso de un modelo de simulación del mercado de energía eléctrica colombiano, basado en el modelo teórico de Nash-Cournot, con el que se estimó el cambio en el bienestar de los consumidores, debido a la ocurrencia de eventos El Nino- Oscilación del Sur (ENOS) de importancia, como el de los anos 1997-1998, así como por la posible ocurrencia de eventos de mayor intensidad, resultado del proceso de Cambio Climático. Las estimaciones obtenidas senalan que el evento del ano 1997-1998, ocasionó pérdidas de bienestar de los consumidores por valor de $1,2 Billones de pesos (0.9% del PIB-1998). De igual forma, eventos más intensos podrían ocasionar perdidas sobre el bienestar de entre el 0.36% y el 0.55% del PIB ******** Abstract This article develops and makes use of a simulation model of the Colombian electricity market, based on the theoretical model of Nash-Cournot, on which the change in consumer welfare was estimated, due to the occurrence of El Nino (ENSO) important events, such as those in 1997-1998, as well as the possible occurrence of events of greater intensity, a result of the climate change. The estimates obtained indicates that the event of the year 1997-1998, caused losses of consumer welfare of $ 1,2 billion pesos (0.9% of 1998-GDP). Similarly, more intense events may cause losses on the welfare of between 0.36% and 0.55% of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • José Guillermo Ariza Estévez, 2014. "Impacto sobre el bienestar social atribuido al fenómeno El Nino (ENOS) y al proceso de cambio climático. Un análisis sobre el mercado de energía colombiano," Revista Lebret, Universidad Santo Tomás - Bucaramanga, vol. 6, pages 61-86, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000385:015966
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    File URL: http://revistas.ustabuca.edu.co/index.php/LEBRET/article/view/1450/1148
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Deschenes, Olivier & Greenstone, Michael, 2004. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random Fluctuations in Weather," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6w7242cj, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    2. Richard Green, 2004. "Did English Generators Play Cournot? Capacity withholding in the Electricity Pool," Working Papers 0410, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    3. Olivier Deschenes & Michael Greenstone, 2004. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Profits and Random," NBER Working Papers 10663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alexander Bonilla & Ramón Rosales & Jorge Maldonado, 2003. "El Valor Económico De La Predicción Del Fenómeno El Nino Oscilación Del Sur Enos Para Elsector Azucarero Colombiano," Documentos CEDE 2565, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Modelo de Nash-Cournot; calentamiento global; valoración económica.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D - Microeconomics
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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