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Impacto de la intervención cambiaria y su duración

Author

Listed:
  • Hernán Rincón-Castro
  • Lucía Arango-Lozano
  • Sara Ariza-Murillo
  • Valeria Bejarano-Salcedo
  • Pamela Cardozo
  • Fredy Gamboa-Estrada
  • Juan Manuel Julio-Román
  • ...

Abstract

En las últimas dos décadas el Banco de la República de Colombia ha intervenido de manera asidua en el mercado cambiario, excepto en los últimos 5 anos. Los objetivos son acumular reservas internacionales, aminorar excesos de volatilidad cambiaria y moderar desviaciones de la tasa de cambio respecto de su tendencia. Este artículo evalúa la magnitud y duración del impacto cambiario de los distintos tipos e instrumentos de intervención y deriva implicaciones de política. Los resultados más importantes son: primero, los canales de transmisión de la política cambiaria actúan en cierto grado y bajo ciertas condiciones. Segundo, los distintos tipos de intervención o instrumentos tienen un impacto limitado o nulo sobre la tasa de cambio y duran poco. Tercero, no se encuentra evidencia de que la intervención oral tenga efecto cambiario alguno. Cuarto, la estructura del mercado cambiario impacta el traspaso de la intervención por medio de su grado de liquidez. Quinto, las condiciones iniciales de la economía y el tipo de choque que experimente influyen en el tamano, duración y grado de traspaso de la intervención. La implicación de política más importante es que la flotación cambiaria, como ha sucedido en los últimos anos, es la política indicada. ****** ABSTRACT: In the last two decades, the Banco de la República de Colombia has assiduously intervened in the foreign exchange market, except in the last 5 years. The objectives are to accumulate international reserves, reduce excess of exchange rate volatility and moderate deviations of the exchange rate with respect to its trend. This article assesses the magnitude and duration of the exchange rate impact of the different types and instruments of foreign exchange intervention and derives policy implications. The most important results are: First, the transmission channels of exchange rate policy act to a certain degree and under certain conditions. Second, the different types of intervention or instruments have little or no impact on the exchange rate and are short-lived. Third, there is no evidence that oral intervention has any exchange rate effect. Fourth, the structure of the foreign exchange market impacts the transmission of the intervention through its degree of liquidity. Fifth, the initial conditions of the economy and the type of shock it experiences influence the size, duration, and degree of transmission of the intervention. The most important policy implication is that floating exchange rate, as has happened in recent years, is the right policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernán Rincón-Castro & Lucía Arango-Lozano & Sara Ariza-Murillo & Valeria Bejarano-Salcedo & Pamela Cardozo & Fredy Gamboa-Estrada & Juan Manuel Julio-Román & ..., 2020. "Impacto de la intervención cambiaria y su duración," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, issue 98, pages 1-120, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:018528
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    Cited by:

    1. Madia, Joan E. & Moscone, Francesco & Nicodemo, Catia, 2023. "Informal care, older people, and COVID-19: Evidence from the UK," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 468-488.
    2. ur Rehman, Attique & Shakeel Sadiq Jajja, Muhammad & Farooq, Sami, 2022. "Manufacturing planning and control driven supply chain risk management: A dynamic capability perspective," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    3. Parra-Polanía, Julián & Sánchez-Jabba, Andrés & Sarmiento, Miguel, 2024. "Are FX communications effective? Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intervención cambiaria; tipos e instrumentos; canales de transmisión; impacto cambiario y duración; implicaciones de política; foreign exchange intervention policy; types and instruments; channels of transmisión; impact and duration; policy implications;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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