Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales With Automated Procedures

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Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales With Automated Procedures

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Rómulo Chumacero E.

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Romulo Chumacero

Abstract

This paper presents a rigorous framework for evaluating alternative forecasting methods for Chilean industrial production and sales. While nonlinear features appear to be important for forecasting the very short term, simple univariate linear models perform about as well for almost every forecasting horizon.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Central Bank of Chile in its journal Economía Chilena.

Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 47-56
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:7:y:2004:i:3:p:47-56

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Paper
- Romulo A. Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales with Automated Procedures," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 112, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Rómulo Chumacero, 2004. "Forecasting Chilean Industrial Production and Sales with Automated Procedures," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 260, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

B. Siliverstovs & D.J. Van Dijk, 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear and structural change models," Econometric Institute Report 321, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Siliverstovs, B. & Dijk, D.J.C. van, 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear, and structural change models," Econometric Institute Report EI 2003-16 Revision_Date:, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Lutz Kilian & Atsushi Inoue, 2002. "In-Sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?," Working Paper Series 195, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
Patton, Andrew J & Timmermann, Allan G, 2003. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 4037, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Allan Timmermann & Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "Properties of Optimal Forecasts," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 234, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Lutz Kilian & Atsushi Inoue, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 214, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Chung-Ming Kuan & Halbert White, 1992. "Artificial Neural Networks: An Econometric Perspective," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 92-11, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
Other versions:
- Chung-Ming Kuan & Halbert White, 1994. "Artificial neural networks: an econometric perspective," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-91. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
Other versions:
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.

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