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Modelling structural-change-related shifts in labour input in the agent-based sector model SWISSland

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  • Ali Ferjani

    (Agroscope Research Station, Ettenhausen, Switzerland)

  • Albert Zimmermann

    (Agroscope Research Station, Ettenhausen, Switzerland)

Abstract

An empirically-based approach was developed to forecast the use of family labour, external labour, contractors and off-farm work in the agentbased sector model SWISSland. The forecast was based on a two-phase procedure. In the first phase, a Bayesian network was used to estimate the agents’ most likely labour-adjustment strategies, bearing in mind their production resources. In the second phase, the optimal labour-input strategies were determined in the optimisation process. Since SWISSland is a recursive-dynamic optimisation model, both routines proceeded in annual time steps. A cluster analysis was carried out to determine the most common labour-input strategies in Switzerland. The results of this analysis were used to set up the Bayesian network and parameterise all observed labour-adjustment strategies in the single-farm optimisation model. The cluster results clearly demonstrated the interdependencies among family labour, external labour, contractors and off-farm work. The optimisation results showed that this method provides detailed forecasts for different labour categories.

Suggested Citation

  • Ali Ferjani & Albert Zimmermann, 2013. "Modelling structural-change-related shifts in labour input in the agent-based sector model SWISSland," Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 6(1), pages 177-200.
    • Handle: RePEc:cha:ysa001:v:6:y:2013:i:1:p:177-200
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    agent-based sector model; farm labour input; cluster analysis; structural change; Bayesian networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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