IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ces/ifosdt/v70y2017i07p03-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Working World 4.0: Growth in Prosperity or Inequality and Job Loss – What Effects will Digitalisation Have?

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Stettes
  • Melanie Arntz
  • Terry Gregory
  • Ulrich Zierahn
  • Katharina Dengler
  • Daniel Veit
  • Werner Eichhorst
  • Ulf Rinne

Abstract

The working world is once again in a state of upheaval. In the public debate, fears are being expressed that technological change and, in particular, digitisation will lead to job losses. Is this concern justified, or will the "Working World 4.0" even bring about new jobs and gains in prosperity? Oliver Stettes, Institute of the German Economy, Cologne, points to the difficulties of estimating the substitutability of jobs by digital technology. As prominent as the fear may be that algorithms, computers or robots are massively replacing people in the working world, there is (at present) hardly any empirical backing for this hypothesis. Melanie Arntz, Terry Gregory and Ulrich Zierahn, Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), Mannheim, see massive structural change as a major result of digitisation. New technologies are putting pressure on jobs, but at the same time they are creating new jobs, and in the recent past the positive effect has been dominant. Katharina Dengler, Institute for Labor Market and Professional Research (IAB), Nuremberg, sees no massive reduction in employment from digitisation at present. Nevertheless, education and lifelong learning remain important. Daniel Veit, University of Augsburg, and MÜNCHNER KREIS, emphasizes the growing need for action from society and politicians, which in his opinion includes, in addition to education and training, the development of meta-competencies. Promoting creativity and a willingness to experiment more strongly will be an essential task for all players in the education sector. Werner Eichhorst and Ulf Rinne, Research Institute for the Future of Labor (IZA), Bonn, view the risks associated with digitisation as "quite manageable". The currently available empirical evidence suggests that there is no reason for "alarmism and exaggerated fears". Currently, there is an opportunity to act and create appropriate "guard rails" for the working world of the future. However, the time frame for this important transformation process is narrowing.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Stettes & Melanie Arntz & Terry Gregory & Ulrich Zierahn & Katharina Dengler & Daniel Veit & Werner Eichhorst & Ulf Rinne, 2017. "Working World 4.0: Growth in Prosperity or Inequality and Job Loss – What Effects will Digitalisation Have?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(07), pages 03-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:07:p:03-18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2017-07-stettes-etal-digitalisierung-2017-04-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dengler, Katharina & Matthes, Britta, 2015. "Folgen der Digitalisierung für die Arbeitswelt : Substituierbarkeitspotenziale von Berufen in Deutschland," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201511, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2014. "Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-Biased Technological Change and Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2509-2526, August.
    3. Richard Freeman, 2015. "Who owns the robots rules the world," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 1-5, May.
    4. Eichhorst, Werner & Hinte, Holger & Rinne, Ulf & Tobsch, Verena, 2016. "Digitalisierung und Arbeitsmarkt: Aktuelle Entwicklungen und sozialpolitische Herausforderungen," IZA Standpunkte 85, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    6. Melanie Arntz & Terry Gregory & Ulrich Zierahn, 2016. "The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 189, OECD Publishing.
    7. Schneider, Hilmar, 2011. ""Fach"-Kräfte für die Arbeit der Zukunft," IZA Standpunkte 41, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. repec:iza:izawol:journl:y:2015:p:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Arnaud Chevalier, 2022. "Does employee ownership improve performance?," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 311-311, May.
    10. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1998. "Computing Inequality: Have Computers Changed the Labor Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1169-1213.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Michael Böheim & Elisabeth Christen & Stefan Ederer & Matthias Firgo & Klaus S. Friesenbichler & Werner Hölzl & Mathias Kirchner & Angela Köppl & Agnes Kügler & Christine May, 2018. "Politischer Handlungsspielraum zur optimalen Nutzung der Vorteile der Digitalisierung für Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigung und Wohlstand," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61256.
    2. Beier, Grischa & Matthess, Marcel & Shuttleworth, Luke & Guan, Ting & de Oliveira Pereira Grudzien, David Iubel & Xue, Bing & Pinheiro de Lima, Edson & Chen, Ling, 2022. "Implications of Industry 4.0 on industrial employment: A comparative survey from Brazilian, Chinese, and German practitioners," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christine Mayrhuber & Julia Bock-Schappelwein, 2018. "Dimensionen plattformbasierter Arbeit in Österreich und Europa. Implikationen für die soziale Sicherheit," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61667.
    2. Thomsen, Stephan L, 2018. "Die Rolle der Computerisierung und Digitalisierung für Beschäftigung und Einkommen," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-645, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    3. Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Michael Böheim & Elisabeth Christen & Stefan Ederer & Matthias Firgo & Klaus S. Friesenbichler & Werner Hölzl & Mathias Kirchner & Angela Köppl & Agnes Kügler & Christine May, 2018. "Politischer Handlungsspielraum zur optimalen Nutzung der Vorteile der Digitalisierung für Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigung und Wohlstand," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61256.
    4. Arntz, Melanie & Gregory, Terry & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "ELS issues in robotics and steps to consider them. Part 1: Robotics and employment. Consequences of robotics and technological change for the structure and level of employment," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 146501, September.
    5. Maarten Goos & Melanie Arntz & Ulrich Zierahn & Terry Gregory & Stephanie Carretero Gomez & Ignacio Gonzalez Vazquez & Koen Jonkers, 2019. "The Impact of Technological Innovation on the Future of Work," JRC Working Papers on Labour, Education and Technology 2019-03, Joint Research Centre.
    6. Łukasz Arendt & Eugeniusz Kwiatkowski, 2023. "Kontrowersje wokół wpływu nowoczesnych technologii na zatrudnienie i bezrobocie," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 2, pages 195-216.
    7. Joonmo Cho & Jinha Kim, 2018. "Identifying Factors Reinforcing Robotization: Interactive Forces of Employment, Working Hour and Wage," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-21, February.
    8. Jelena Reljic & Rinaldo Evangelista & Mario Pianta, 2019. "Digital technologies, employment and skills," LEM Papers Series 2019/36, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Gunther Tichy, 2016. "Geht der Arbeitsgesellschaft die Arbeit aus?," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 89(12), pages 853-871, December.
    10. T. Gries & R. Grundmann & I. Palnau & M. Redlin, 2017. "Innovations, growth and participation in advanced economies - a review of major concepts and findings," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 293-351, April.
    11. Silvia Vannutelli & Sergio Scicchitano & Marco Biagetti, 2022. "Routine-biased technological change and wage inequality: do workers’ perceptions matter?," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 409-450, September.
    12. Santana, Monica & Cobo, Manuel J., 2020. "What is the future of work? A science mapping analysis," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 846-862.
    13. David J. Deming, 2017. "The Growing Importance of Social Skills in the Labor Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1593-1640.
    14. Marin, Giovanni & Vona, Francesco, 2023. "Finance and the reallocation of scientific, engineering and mathematical talent," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(5).
    15. Wojciech Hardy & Roma Keister & Piotr Lewandowski, 2016. "Technology or Upskilling? Trends in the Task Composition of Jobs in Central and Eastern Europe," HKUST IEMS Working Paper Series 2016-40, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, revised Dec 2016.
    16. Colombo, Emilio & Mercorio, Fabio & Mezzanzanica, Mario, 2019. "AI meets labor market: Exploring the link between automation and skills," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 27-37.
    17. Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2020. "Artificial Intelligence, Income Distribution and Economic Growth," GLO Discussion Paper Series 632, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    18. Holger M. Mueller & Paige P. Ouimet & Elena Simintzi, 2015. "Wage Inequality and Firm Growth," NBER Working Papers 20876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hensvik, Lena & Skans, Oskar Nordström, 2023. "The skill-specific impact of past and projected occupational decline," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Irene Brambilla, 2018. "Digital Technology Adoption and Jobs: A Model of Firm Heterogeneity," Department of Economics, Working Papers 117, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:07:p:03-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.