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USA - Expansive Geld- und Finanzpolitik ebnet den Weg für kräftigen Aufschwung

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  • Martin Meurers

Abstract

Nach kurzer Abschwungphase als Folge der weltweiten Rezession im IT-Bereich und der Verunsicherung durch die Anschläge vom 11. September kam es im Jahr 2002 bereits wieder zu einer spürbaren Erholung der US-Wirtschaft. Das Bruttoinlandsprodukt legte mit 2,4% wieder deutlich zu. Getragen war die Entwicklung von dem durch kräftige Steuersenkungen angeheizten privaten Konsum, vom privaten Wohnungsbau sowie von einer kräftigen Ausweitung der öffentlichen Konsum- und Investitionsausgaben. Die Situation auf dem Arbeitsmarkt verschlechterte sich, und die Arbeitslosenquote stieg zum Jahresende auf 5,9% an. Die Verbraucherpreise erhöhten sich lediglich um 1,6%. In diesem Jahr dürfte das Wachstumstempo weiterhin hoch bleiben, so dass im Vorjahresvergleich mit einer Zunahme des BIP um 3,0% gerechnet werden kann. Auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wird sich keine Verbesserung einstellen. Die Arbeitslosenquote wird auf einem Niveau von 6% verharren. Die Konsumentenpreise dürften gegenüber dem Vorjahr um durchschnittlich 2,4% steigen. 2004 wird das reale BIP um reichlich 4% zunehmen. Die Arbeitslosenquote wird auf 5,7% sinken, und die Konsumentenpreise werden rund 2¾% über dem Niveau des Vorjahres liegen.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Meurers, 2003. "USA - Expansive Geld- und Finanzpolitik ebnet den Weg für kräftigen Aufschwung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 56(23), pages 35-44, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:56:y:2003:i:23:p:35-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Hooper & Karen H. Johnson & Jaime R. Marquez, 1998. "Trade elasticities for G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 609, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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