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Der ostdeutsche Arbeitsmarkt: Kann das ifo Beschäftigungsbarometer dessen konjunkturelle Dynamik abbilden?

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  • Robert Lehmann

Abstract

Die Lage am ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt hat sich seit 2005 deutlich verbessert und präsentierte sich auch in Zeiten der Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise als äußerst robust. Zur Beurteilung der Arbeitsmarktlage bedarf es eines Indikators, der sich zum einen durch einen geringen Revisionsbedarf auszeichnet und zum anderen das Geschehen am ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarkt mit einem gewissen Vorlauf abbildet. Die Arbeitslosenquote, die zumeist verwendet wird, kann diesen Zweck nicht erfüllen: Zum einen wird sie sowohl durch Arbeitsangebots- und -nachfragentwicklungen beeinflusst, zum anderen reagiert sie erst mit Verzögerung auf Beschäftigungsschwankungen. Um diese Lücke zu schließen, berechnet das ifo Institut seit geraumer Zeit ein „Beschäftigungsbarometer“, das seit Kurzem auch für Ostdeutschland erhoben und ausgewertet wird. Bei der Untersuchung der Beschäftigungserwartungen der gewerblichen Wirtschaft Ostdeutschlands ergibt sich, dass die Befragungsdaten aus dem ifo Konjunkturtest sowohl einen Vorlauf im statistischen Sinne als auch einen Informationsvorsprung gegenüber den Daten aus der amtlichen Statistik aufweisen. Demzufolge kann das ifo Beschäftigungsbarometer die konjunkturelle Grunddynamik des ostdeutschen Arbeitsmarktes abbilden und für Prognosezwecke eingesetzt werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann, 2010. "Der ostdeutsche Arbeitsmarkt: Kann das ifo Beschäftigungsbarometer dessen konjunkturelle Dynamik abbilden?," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(06), pages 27-32, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:17:y:2010:i:06:p:27-32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klaus Abberger, 2008. "The Ifo Employment Barometer: A "pressure gauge" for the German labour market," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 19-22, May.
    2. Abberger, Klaus, 2007. "Qualitative business surveys and the assessment of employment -- A case study for Germany," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 249-258.
    3. Christian Hott & André Kunkel, 2004. "An Ifo employment indicator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(06), pages 53-57, March.
    4. Gerit Vogt, 2008. "Ein Beschäftigungsbarometer für die sächsische Wirtschaft," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 15(01), pages 41-43, 02.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    2. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.

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    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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