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Un modèle calibré de l’effet du CICE sur l’emploi

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  • Thomas Breda
  • Luke Haywood
  • Haomin Wang

Abstract

We compare the employment and wage effects of the Crédit d?impôt pour la compétitivité et l?emploi (CICE) to more specific reductions in social security contributions (SSC) similar to those currently operating in France. To this end we construct a search and matching model of the labour market with heterogeneous workers and firms, complementarities in production and bargaining over wages. Our model allows for unemployed workers non-participating and searching on-the-job. Our theoretical contribution, part of a larger research agenda, is to include taxes and minimum wages in a model of this type. The model is calibrated according to employment statistics generated by the French statistics office and wage statistics based on the Déclarations annuelles de données sociales (DADS). We use the results from this calibration exercise for counterfactual policy simulations. These simulations show that at similar budgetary cost, the employment effect of the CICE is systematically smaller than more targeted reductions in SSC. We conclude that in our equilibrium model, there are no significant employment effects of the CICE.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Breda & Luke Haywood & Haomin Wang, 2017. "Un modèle calibré de l’effet du CICE sur l’emploi," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 16-58.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:rferfe:rfe_171_0016
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    Cited by:

    1. Antoine Bozio & Sophie Cottet & Clément Malgouyres, 2018. "What effects to expect from the conversion of the competitiveness and employment tax credit (CICE) into employer contribution reductions?," Institut des Politiques Publiques halshs-02520785, HAL.
    2. Antoine Bozio & Sophie Cottet & Clément Malgouyres, 2018. "What effects to expect from the conversion of the competitiveness and employment tax credit (CICE) into employer contribution reductions?," Institut des Politiques Publiques halshs-02520785, HAL.

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