IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cai/edddbu/edd_191_123.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Déterminants de long terme des taux de change réels pour les pays en développement : une comparaison internationale

Author

Listed:
  • Imed Drine
  • Christophe Rault

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to apply recent advances in the econometrics of non-stationary dynamic panel methods to examine the main long-run determinants of real exchange rate. We consider here a sample of 45 developing countries, divided into three groups according to geographical criteria : Africa, Latin America and Asia. Our investigations confirm that having a reference to assess the degree of distortion of real exchange rate is not as simple as it can be thought with the PPP concept. The real exchange rate is effectively at the centre of an economic spiral and its value depends on the economic specificities of each country. In other words, we don't have a fixed and general norm but, for each economy, the real exchange rate trajectory depends on its development level, on the way economic policy is conducted, and on its position on the international market.

Suggested Citation

  • Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2005. "Déterminants de long terme des taux de change réels pour les pays en développement : une comparaison internationale," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 13(1), pages 123-150.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:edddbu:edd_191_123
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/load_pdf.php?ID_ARTICLE=EDD_191_123
    Download Restriction: free

    File URL: http://www.cairn.info/revue-d-economie-du-developpement-2005-1-page-123.htm
    Download Restriction: free
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 209-224, February.
    2. Quah, Danny, 1994. "Exploiting cross-section variation for unit root inference in dynamic data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 9-19.
    3. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2004:i:6:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    5. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," International Finance 9707001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 597-625, June.
    7. John Williamson, 1996. "Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime: Lessons from Chile, Colombia and Israel, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 14.
    8. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    9. Zhang, Zhichao, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in China: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 80-94, March.
    10. Mr. Tarhan Feyzioglu, 1997. "Estimating the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: An Application to Finland," IMF Working Papers 1997/109, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Edwards, Sebastian, 1993. "Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1358-1393, September.
    12. William Ellery Channing, 1994. "Change," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 15-15, January.
    13. Ofair Razin & Susan M. Collins, 1997. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Growth," NBER Working Papers 6174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
    15. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    16. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
    17. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    18. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    19. John Williamson, 1994. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 17.
    20. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. "Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-629, Special I.
    21. Ghura, Dhaneshwar & Grennes, Thomas J., 1993. "The real exchange rate and macroeconomic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 155-174, October.
    22. Strauss, Jack, 1999. "Productivity differentials, the relative price of non-tradables and real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 383-409.
    23. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    24. Mr. Ronald MacDonald & Mr. Luca A Ricci, 2003. "Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2003/044, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    26. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2003. "Do panel data permit the rescue of the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis for Latin American countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 351-359.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.
    2. Nader NEFZI & Joël OUDINET & Mouez SOUSSI, 2020. "Transferts de fonds des migrants et mésalignement du change réel," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 51, pages 87-114.
    3. Christophe RAULT & Guglielmo Maria CAPORALE & Thouraya HADJ AMOR, 2009. "International Financial Integration And Real Exchange Rate Long-Run Dynamics In Emerging Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp970, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4066 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "International financial integration and real exchange rate long-run dynamics in emerging countries: Some panel evidence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 789-808, September.
    6. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2015. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(2), pages 145-160, June.
    7. Khaled Chnaina & Farid Makhlouf, 2012. "Impact des Transferts de Fonds sur le Taux de Change Réel Effectif en Tunisie," Working papers of CATT hal-01885155, HAL.
    8. Hoarau, Jean-François, 2009. "L’approche microéconomique du taux de change réel d’équilibre : une revue de la littérature théorique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 85(4), pages 403-436, décembre.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nouira, Ridha & Plane, Patrick & Sekkat, Khalid, 2011. "Exchange rate undervaluation and manufactured exports: A deliberate strategy?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 584-601.
    2. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2003. "On the long-run determinants of real exchange rates for developing countries : Evidence from Africa, Latin America and Asia," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-571, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Working Papers 0811, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    4. Nouira, Ridha & Sekkat, Khalid, 2012. "Desperately seeking the positive impact of undervaluation on growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 537-552.
    5. Diallo, Ibrahima Amadou, 2011. "The effects of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange volatility on exports," MPRA Paper 32387, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ramos-Herrera María del Carmen, 2022. "How Equilibrium Exchange Rate Misalignments Influence on Economic Growth? Evidence for European Countries," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 199-211, January.
    7. Valérie Mignon & Christophe Hurlin, 2007. "Une synthèse des tests de cointégration sur données de panel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 180(4), pages 241-265.
    8. Ronald MacDonald & Flávio Vieira, "undated". "A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth," Working Papers 2010_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    9. Ferdinand Owoundi & Jacques Landry Bikai, 2021. "On the neutrality of the exchange rate regime regarding real misalignments: Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 327-345, July.
    10. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2002. "Does the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Hold for Asian Countries? An Empirical Analysis using Panel Data Cointegration Tests," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 504, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    11. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan & Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2009. "International R&D spillovers and institutions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 723-741, October.
    12. Carlos Alberto Barreto Nieto & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2012. "Relación a largo plazo entre consumo de energía y PIB en América Latina: Una evaluación empírica con datos panel," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, October.
    13. Schröder, Marcel, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 140-151.
    14. Patrick PLANE & Ridha NOUIRA & SEKKAT, 2010. "Exchange Rate Undervaluation to Foster Manufactured Exports: A Deliberate Strategy?," Working Papers 201010, CERDI.
    15. García Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2009. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Developed Countries and Emerging Market Economies: Different Outcomes Explained," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-24.
    16. Andrea Saayman, 2010. "A Panel Data Approach To The Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate Of The Zar," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 57-75, March.
    17. Blaise Gnimassoun, 2017. "Exchange rate misalignments and the external balance under a pegged currency system," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(5), pages 949-974, November.
    18. Khalid Sekkat, 2012. "Exchange Rate Undervaluation, Financial Development and Growth," Working Papers 742, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2012.
    19. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2006. "The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Five Central European Countries," Economic Research Papers 269632, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    20. Aykut Kibritcioglu & Bengi Kibritcioglu, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in Turkey, 1987-2003 (in Turkish)," Macroeconomics 0403006, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 22 Apr 2004.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cai:edddbu:edd_191_123. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceauvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.