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Bayesian Estimation and Model Selection in the Generalized Stochastic Unit Root Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yang Fuyu

    (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin)

  • Leon-Gonzalez Roberto

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

Abstract

We develop Bayesian techniques for estimation and model comparison in a novel Generalized Stochastic Unit Root (GSTUR) model. This allows us to investigate the presence of a deterministic time trend in economic series, while allowing the degree of persistence to change over time. In particular the model allows for shifts from stationarity I(0) to nonstationarity I(1) or vice versa. The empirical analysis demonstrates that the GSTUR model provides new insights on the properties of some macroeconomic time series such as stock market indices, inflation and exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Fuyu & Leon-Gonzalez Roberto, 2010. "Bayesian Estimation and Model Selection in the Generalized Stochastic Unit Root Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:14:y:2010:i:4:n:5
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1766
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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Clavijo-Cortes, 2021. "How persistent is unemployment in major Latin American economies?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 342-360.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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