IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bejmac/v13y2013i1p38n19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Credit demand, credit supply, and economic activity

Author

Listed:
  • Balke Nathan S.

    (Department of Economics, Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX 75275, USA; and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Zeng Zheng

    (Department of Economics, Bowling Green State University, Bowling Green, OH 43403, USA)

Abstract

In this paper, we attempt to identify the separate contributions of credit demand, supply of financial intermediation, and supply of funds to fluctuations in indicators of credit conditions and to fluctuations in economic activity. We estimate a common factor model in which the six factors correspond to supply of funds, financial intermediation, credit demand, aggregate uncertainty, real economic activity, and inflation. We use a simple model of financial intermediation to motivate restrictions on the factor loadings designed to identify supply of funds, uncertainty, credit demand, and financial intermediation factors. We find that the supply of funds and financial intermediation factors explain most of the variation in interest rates spreads, while the financial intermediation and credit demand factors typically contribute to most of the fluctuations in credit quantity variables. For credit indicators, the 2008–2009 financial crisis appears to be largely due to a decline in the financial intermediation. However, this decline in financial intermediation seems to have originated from output and uncertainty shocks, rather than shocks to financial intermediation itself.

Suggested Citation

  • Balke Nathan S. & Zeng Zheng, 2013. "Credit demand, credit supply, and economic activity," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-38, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:13:y:2013:i:1:p:38:n:19
    DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2012-0116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/bejm-2012-0116
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/bejm-2012-0116?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    2. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    3. Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
    4. William C Dunkelberg & Jonathan A Scott, 2009. "The Response of Small Business Owners to Changes in Monetary Policy," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 23-37, January.
    5. Robert E. Hall, 2010. "Why Does the Economy Fall to Pieces after a Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 3-20, Fall.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zuzanna Wosko, 2016. "Determinants of credit in the Polish banking sector before and after the GFC according to information from the NBP Senior Loan Officer Survey. Does supply or demand matter?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Combining micro and macro data for financial stability analysis, volume 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Balke, Nathan S. & Zeng, Zheng & Zhang, Ren, 2021. "Identifying credit demand, financial intermediation, and supply of funds shocks: A structural VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    3. Miroslav Plasil & Stepan Radkovsky & Pavel Rezabek, 2013. "Modelling bank loans to non-financial corporations," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2012/2013, chapter 0, pages 128-136, Czech National Bank.
    4. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Bank loan components, uncertainty and monetary transmission mechanism," BCAM Working Papers 1702, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
    5. Stefan Avdjiev & Zheng Zeng, 2014. "Credit growth, monetary policy and economic activity in a three-regime TVAR model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2936-2951, August.
    6. Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2017. "Banks' balance sheet, uncertainty and macroeconomy," EcoMod2017 10430, EcoMod.
    7. Carter, Justin & Moore, Winston & Jackman, Mahalia, 2012. "Is the Magnitude of Household Debt in Barbados a Concern?," MPRA Paper 47791, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Metiu, Norbert & Hilberg, Björn & Grill, Michael, 2016. "Credit constraints and the international propagation of US financial shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 67-80.
    3. Andrea Silvestrini & Andrea Zaghini, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: a survey of the theoretical and empirical literature," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 255, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Camilo Alberto Cárdenas-Hurtado & Aaron Levi Garavito-Acosta & Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks on Tradable and Non-tradable Investment Rates: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 1043, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h560mit97 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Tena, Juan de Dios & Tremayne, A.R., 2009. "Modelling monetary transmission in UK manufacturing industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1053-1066, September.
    7. Geršl, Adam & Jakubík, Petr & Kowalczyk, Dorota & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José-Luis, 2015. "Monetary conditions and banks’ behaviour in the Czech Republic," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 407-445.
    8. Melchisedek Joslem Ngambou Djatche, 2022. "Monetary policy, prudential policy and bank's risk‐taking: A literature review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1559-1590, December.
    9. Ferrando, Annalisa & Popov, Alexander & Udell, Gregory F., 2022. "Unconventional monetary policy, funding expectations, and firm decisions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Tor Jacobson & Jesper Lindé & Kasper Roszbach, 2013. "Firm Default And Aggregate Fluctuations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 945-972, August.
    11. Cerqueira, Vinícius Dos Santos & Ribeiro, Márcio Bruno & Martinez, Thiago Sevilhano, 2014. "Propagação Assimétrica de Choques Monetários na Economia Brasileira: Evidências com base em um modelo vetorial não-linear de transição suave," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
    12. Guender, Alfred V, 2018. "Credit prices vs. credit quantities as predictors of economic activity in Europe: Which tell a better story?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 380-399.
    13. Hans Genberg, 2008. "The changing nature of financial intermediation and its implications for monetary policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy, volume 39, pages 100-113, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. António Afonso & Jaromír Baxa & Michal Slavík, 2018. "Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 395-423, March.
    15. Giovanno Favara, 2006. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Endogenous Business Fluctuations," 2006 Meeting Papers 400, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Renée Fry-Mckibbin & Jasmine Zheng, 2016. "Effects of the US monetary policy shocks during financial crises – a threshold vector autoregression approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(59), pages 5802-5823, December.
    17. Bucă, Andra & Vermeulen, Philip, 2017. "Corporate investment and bank-dependent borrowers during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 164-180.
    18. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2009. "What happens during recessions, crunches and busts? [Business cycles for G-7 and European countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 653-700.
    19. Serwa, Dobromil, 2010. "Larger crises cost more: Impact of banking sector instability on output growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1463-1481, December.
    20. Christophe Blot & Sabine Le Bayon & Matthieu Lemoine & Sandrine Levasseur, 2009. "De la crise financière à la crise économique," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03476072, HAL.
    21. Chan, Ying Tung & Zhao, Hong, 2019. "How do credit market frictions affect carbon cycles? an estimated DSGE model approach," MPRA Paper 106987, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Dec 2020.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:13:y:2013:i:1:p:38:n:19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.