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Demographic Change and Policy Responses: Implications for the Global Economy

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Author Info
Rod Tyers
Qun Shi

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Abstract

The fertility declines associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to slower population growth and accelerated ageing in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. A global demographic and economic model is used to assess the implications of these changes for population sizes, age-gender distributions, labour force growth and their implications for economic performance. A baseline projection that incorporates declining fertility is compared with a hypothetical constant population growth scenario. The results show that slower population growth and ageing reduces average saving rates in industrial regions, yet global investment demand is also slowed and saving rates rise in developing regions, so there is no net tightening of financial markets. Increased aged labour force participation, considered one solution to the resulting rise in aged dependency in advanced regions, is found to redistribute investment in favour of the industrialised regions and hence to accelerate their per capita income growth, while conferring on the other regions compensatory terms of trade improvements. The alternative of replacement migration is found to require inconceivably large population movements. It also impairs real per capita growth in destination regions but by least in Western Europe, where the terms of trade are improved by the immigration. Copyright 2007 The Authors
Journal compilation 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd .

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal World Economy.

Volume (Year): 30 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (04)
Pages: 537-566
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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:30:y:2007:i:4:p:537-566

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
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  2. Vernon W. Ruttan, 2002. "Productivity Growth in World Agriculture: Sources and Constraints," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 161-184, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Jahnvi Vedi, 2006. "The global implications of freer skilled migration," PGDA Working Papers 1006, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2001. "Information technology and the U.S. productivity revival: what do the industry data say?," Staff Reports 115, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: The Roles of Demographic Change and Investment Risk," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2006-461, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Rees, Lucy & Tyers, Rod, 2004. "Trade reform in the short run: China's WTO accession," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-31, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Ianchovichina, Elena & Robert McDougall, 2000. "Theoretical Structure of Dynamic GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 480, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
  11. Nicoletta Batini & Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ron Duncan & Qun Shi & Rod Tyers, 2004. "Demographic Change and Demand for Food in Australia," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2004-441, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Lipsey, Robert E., 1994. "Quality change and other influences on measures of export prices of manufactured goods," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1348, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Rod Tyers & Qun Shi, 2006. "Global Demographic Change, Labour Force Growth and Economic Performance," ANUCBE School of Economics Working Papers 2006-462, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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