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Ultimate 100‐m world records through extreme‐value theory

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  • John H. J. Einmahl
  • Sander G. W. R. Smeets

Abstract

We use extreme-value theory to estimate the ultimate world records for the 100m running, for both men and women. For this aim we collected the fastest personal best times set between January 1991 and June 2008. Estimators of the extreme-value index are based on a certain number of upper order statistics. To optimize this number of order statistics we minimize the asymptotic mean squared error of the moment estimator. Using the thus obtained estimate for the extreme-value index, the right endpoint of the speed distribution is estimated. The corresponding time can be interpreted as the estimated ultimate world record: the best possible time that could be run in the near future. We find 9.51 seconds for the 100m men and 10.33 seconds for the women. Running title. Ultimate 100m world records.
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Suggested Citation

  • John H. J. Einmahl & Sander G. W. R. Smeets, 2011. "Ultimate 100‐m world records through extreme‐value theory," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(1), pages 32-42, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:stanee:v:65:y:2011:i:1:p:32-42
    DOI: j.1467-9574.2010.00470.x
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    1. Einmahl, J. H.J. & Dekkers, A. L.M. & de Haan, L., 1989. "A moment estimator for the index of an extreme-value distribution," Other publications TiSEM 81970cb3-5b7a-4cad-9bf6-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Geoffroy Berthelot & Valérie Thibault & Muriel Tafflet & Sylvie Escolano & Nour El Helou & Xavier Jouven & Olivier Hermine & Jean-François Toussaint, 2008. "The Citius End: World Records Progression Announces the Completion of a Brief Ultra-Physiological Quest," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 3(2), pages 1-5, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christina Empacher & Udo Kamps & Grigoriy Volovskiy, 2023. "Statistical Prediction of Future Sports Records Based on Record Values," Stats, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, January.
    2. M. Ivette Gomes & Armelle Guillou, 2015. "Extreme Value Theory and Statistics of Univariate Extremes: A Review," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 83(2), pages 263-292, August.
    3. Gbari, Kock Yed Ake Samuel & Poulain, Michel & Dal, Luc & Denuit, Michel, 2016. "Extreme value analysis of mortality at the oldest ages: a case study based on individual ages at death," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2016012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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