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Will COVID‐19 hinder or aid the transition to sustainable urban mobility? Spotlight on Portugal's largest urban agglomeration

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  • Patrícia C. Melo

Abstract

This study discusses the possible effects of two major COVID‐19 disruptions – that is, the widespread adoption of working from home and the ‘bio‐security’ fear affecting public transport – on travel patterns in Lisbon urban agglomeration. Drawing on evidence from the literature on the effects of teleworking on travel demand and the determinants of public transport, together with the analysis of travel data before and during the pandemic, the study concludes that the pandemic may hinder, more than aid, the transition to a sustainable mobility paradigm in Lisbon and its metropolitan area. The analysis of monthly travel demand shows that car use has recovered at a faster rate than public transport use, reaching pre‐pandemic levels in some of the main arterial roads serving Lisbon. There appears to be a substitution of public transport trips by both driving and active micromobility. The main losers so far are public transport operators: the pandemic increased operating deficits and the need for additional public subsidies, putting at risk the future financial sustainability of public transport. Without serious commitment by local and national governments, the pandemic is likely to be another missed opportunity to transition to a better, more sustainable, urban mobility system. Este estudio analiza los posibles efectos de dos importantes perturbaciones de COVID‐19 en las pautas de desplazamiento en la aglomeración urbana de Lisboa, a saber, la adopción generalizada del trabajo desde casa y el temor a la ‘bioseguridad’ que afecta al transporte público. Haciendo uso de la evidencia de la literatura sobre los efectos del teletrabajo en la demanda de desplazamientos y los determinantes del transporte público, junto con el análisis de los datos de desplazamientos antes y durante la pandemia, el estudio concluye que la pandemia puede obstaculizar, más que ayudar, la transición a un paradigma de movilidad sostenible en Lisboa y su área metropolitana. El análisis de la demanda mensual de desplazamientos muestra que el uso del automóvil se ha recuperado a un ritmo más rápido que el del transporte público, alcanzando niveles prepandémicos en algunas de las principales arterias que dan servicio a Lisboa. Parece que hay una sustitución de los desplazamientos en transporte público tanto por la conducción como por la micromovilidad activa. Los principales perdedores hasta ahora son los operadores de transporte público: la pandemia aumentó los déficits de explotación y la necesidad de subvenciones públicas adicionales, lo que pone en riesgo la futura sostenibilidad financiera del transporte público. Sin un compromiso serio por parte de los gobiernos locales y nacional, es probable que la pandemia sea otra oportunidad perdida para la transición a un sistema de movilidad urbana mejor y más sostenible. 本研究は、2つの大きなコロナディスラプション、すなわち在宅勤務の採用の普及と、公共交通機関に影響する「バイオセキュリティ」に対する恐怖が、リスボンの都市集積における移動パターンに対して及ぼす可能性のある影響について考察する。本稿では、テレワークが交通需要に与える影響と公共交通機関の決定要因に関する文献が示すエビデンスに加え、パンデミック前とパンデミック中の交通データの分析を基に、パンデミックが、リスボンとその大都市圏における持続可能な移動パラダイムへの移行を、手助けするのではなくむしろ妨げる可能性があると結論する。毎月の交通需要の分析によると、車の利用は公共交通機関の利用よりも早いペースで回復しており、リスボンの主要幹線道路の一部ではパンデミック前のレベルに達している。公共交通機関の利用は、自家用車の利用とマイクロモビリティの両方にとってかわられていると考えられる。これまでの時点では、敗者は公共交通事業の経営者であるが、それはパンデミックが営業損失を増加させ、公的補助金の追加が必要となり、公共交通機関の将来の財政的持続可能性が危険にさらされている。地方行政や国が真剣に取り組まなければ、パンデミックは、より優れた持続可能な都市交通システムに移行する機会が失われる可能性が高い。

Suggested Citation

  • Patrícia C. Melo, 2022. "Will COVID‐19 hinder or aid the transition to sustainable urban mobility? Spotlight on Portugal's largest urban agglomeration," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(S1), pages 80-106, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:rgscpp:v:14:y:2022:i:s1:p:80-106
    DOI: 10.1111/rsp3.12518
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    References listed on IDEAS

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