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The Conditional Probability of Foreclosure: An Empirical Analysis of Conventional Mortgage Loan Defaults

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  • Richard A. Phillips
  • James H. VanderHoff

Abstract

This paper analyzes the factors affecting the conditional probability that defaulted residential mortgage loans will foreclose. We analyze a large national sample of conventional loans, which have been in default at least once during the 1988 to 1994 period. For such loans, lenders and borrowers either individually or jointly make choices which lead to the following outcomes: (1) resumption of payments, (2) termination by prepayment, or (3) foreclosure. Our estimates of a logit model indicate that termination option values and local area economic and housing market conditions affect default resolution probabilities. Perhaps more importantly, simulations using the logit model indicate that the efficiency of the default resolution process may be substantially improved by legal and regulatory reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard A. Phillips & James H. VanderHoff, 2004. "The Conditional Probability of Foreclosure: An Empirical Analysis of Conventional Mortgage Loan Defaults," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(4), pages 571-587, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:32:y:2004:i:4:p:571-587
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1080-8620.2004.00103.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Allen Head & Amy Hongfei Sun & Chenggang Zhou, 2016. "Default, Mortgage Standards And Housing Liquidity," Working Paper 1359, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    2. Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "Subprime refinancing: equity extraction and mortgage termination," Working Papers 2006-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2010. "The Duration of Foreclosures in the Subprime Mortgage Market: A Competing Risks Model with Mixing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 109-129, February.
    4. Goodman, Allen C. & Smith, Brent C., 2010. "Residential mortgage default: Theory works and so does policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 280-294, December.
    5. Thomas P. Boehm & Alan M. Schlottmann, 2017. "Mortgage Payment Problem Development and Recovery: A Joint Probability Model Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 476-510, November.
    6. Ioan Voicu & Marilyn Jacob & Kristopher Rengert & Irene Fang, 2012. "Subprime Loan Default Resolutions: Do They Vary Across Mortgage Products and Borrower Demographic Groups?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 939-964, November.
    7. Gerardi, Kristopher & Lambie-Hanson, Lauren & Willen, Paul S., 2013. "Do borrower rights improve borrower outcomes? Evidence from the foreclosure process," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 1-17.
    8. O. Emre Ergungor, 2009. "Foreclosures in Ohio: does lender type matter?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    9. Lawrence R. Cordell & Liang Geng & Laurie Goodman & Lidan Yang, 2013. "The cost of delay," Working Papers 13-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. Maximilian Schmeiser & Matthew Gross, 2016. "The Determinants of Subprime Mortgage Performance Following a Loan Modification," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 1-27, January.
    11. Aidong Adam Ding & Shaonan Tian & Yan Yu & Xinlei Zhao, 2022. "Does judicial foreclosure procedure help delinquent subprime mortgage borrowers?," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(2), pages 382-422, June.
    12. Zhang, Yan, 2013. "Does loan renegotiation differ by securitization status? A transition probability study," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 513-527.
    13. Eli Beracha & Alexandre Skiba & Ken H Johnson, 2017. "Housing Ownership Decision Making in the Framework of Household Portfolio Choice," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 39(2), pages 263-288.
    14. deRitis, Cristian & Kuo, Chionglong & Liang, Yongping, 2010. "Payment shock and mortgage performance," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 295-314, December.
    15. Bruce Gordon & Daniel Winkler, 2015. "Statutory Right of Redemption and the Selling Price of Foreclosed Houses," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 365-397, October.
    16. Allen C. Goodman & Brent C. Smith, 2010. "Housing default: theory works and so does policy," Working Paper 10-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    17. Andrew Carswell, 2009. "Does Housing Counseling Change Consumer Financial Behaviors? Evidence from Philadelphia," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 339-356, December.
    18. Been, Vicki & Weselcouch, Mary & Voicu, Ioan & Murff, Scott, 2013. "Determinants of the incidence of U.S. Mortgage Loan Modifications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3951-3973.
    19. Kashian, Russell & Cebula, Richard & Cramer, Eric, 2014. "Foreclosures in an Exurb: Multiple Empirical Analyses through a Prism," MPRA Paper 55557, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Head, Allen & Sun, Hongfei & Zhou, Chenggang, 2023. "Indebted sellers, liquidity and mortgage standards," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    21. Lei Ding & Roberto G. Quercia & Janneke Ratcliffe, 2008. "Post-purchase Counseling and Default Resolutions among Low- and Moderate-Income Borrowers," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(3), pages 315-344.
    22. Kashian, Russell & Cebula, Richard & Peterson, Jeremy, 2015. "A Duration Analysis of Foreclosures to Sheriff Sales in Light of the Financial Crisis," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 45(2).
    23. Justin Benefield & Ronald Rutherford & Marcus Allen, 2012. "The Effects of Estate Sales of Residential Real Estate on Price and Marketing Time," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 965-981, November.
    24. Jou, Jyh-Bang & Lee, Tan (Charlene), 2016. "How does statutory redemption affect a buyer's decision at the foreclosure sale?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 263-272.

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