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How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline?

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  • Daphne H. Liu
  • Adrian E. Raftery

Abstract

Education and family planning can both be influenced by policy and are thought to accelerate fertility decline. However, questions remain about the nature of these effects. Does the effect of education operate through increasing educational attainment of women or educational enrollment of children? At which educational level is the effect strongest? Does the effect of family planning operate through increasing contraceptive prevalence or reducing unmet need? Is education or family planning more important? We assessed the quantitative impact of education and family planning in high‐fertility settings using a regression framework inspired by Granger causality. We found that women's attainment of lower secondary education is key to accelerating fertility decline and found an accelerating effect of contraceptive prevalence for modern methods. We found the impact of contraceptive prevalence to be substantially larger than that of education. These accelerating effects hold in sub‐Saharan Africa, but with smaller effect sizes there than elsewhere.

Suggested Citation

  • Daphne H. Liu & Adrian E. Raftery, 2020. "How Do Education and Family Planning Accelerate Fertility Decline?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 46(3), pages 409-441, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:46:y:2020:i:3:p:409-441
    DOI: 10.1111/padr.12347
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    2. Büttner, Nicolas & Grimm, Michael & Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth & Klasen, Stephan, 2022. "The fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of structural change," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-90-22, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    3. Kaat Van Hoyweghen & Janne Bemelmans & Hendrik Feyaerts & Goedele Van den Broeck & Miet Maertens, 2023. "Small Family, Happy Family? Fertility Preferences and the Quantity–Quality Trade-Off in Sub-Saharan Africa," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-35, December.
    4. Nicholas A. Mailloux & Colleen P. Henegan & Dorothy Lsoto & Kristen P. Patterson & Paul C. West & Jonathan A. Foley & Jonathan A. Patz, 2021. "Climate Solutions Double as Health Interventions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Michael Ekholuenetale & Olah Uloko Owobi & Benedict Terfa Shishi, 2022. "Socioeconomic Position in Modern Contraceptive Uptake and Fertility Rate among Women of Childbearing Age in 37 Sub-Saharan Countries," World, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-18, October.
    6. Mohamed Salih Mahfouz & Mona Elmahdy & Majed Ahmed Ryani & Amani Osman Abdelmola & Samah Ahmed Ali Kariri & Hayat Yahya Ahmad Alhazmi & Salwa Hussain Mater Almalki & Ons Mohammed Adhabi & Sahar Mohamm, 2023. "Contraceptive Use and the Associated Factors among Women of Reproductive Age in Jazan City, Saudi Arabia: A Cross-Sectional Survey," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-10, January.

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