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Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China

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  • Zeng Yi

Abstract

This article compares five currently debated scenarios for fertility policy transition in China, in terms of their implications for future population growth and population aging, the proportions of elderly living alone, labor force trends, pension deficits, economic costs, the marriage squeeze, and other socioeconomic outcomes. Based on these comparative analyses, the author concludes that China needs to begin a gradual modification of its fertility policy as soon as possible. He proposes a three‐stage “soft‐landing” strategy for fertility policy transition: (1) a 7‐year initial smooth transition period; (2) from approximately 2014‐15 to 2032‐35 a universal two‐child policy combined with late childbearing in both rural and urban areas; (3) after 2032‐35 all Chinese citizens would be free to choose family size and fertility timing. This strategy will enable China to have much more favorable demographic conditions and socioeconomic outcomes, as compared to keeping the current policy unchanged.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeng Yi, 2007. "Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 33(2), pages 215-246, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:33:y:2007:i:2:p:215-246
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00168.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1998. "Growth, Distribution, and Demography: Some Lessons from History," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 241-271, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yong Cai, 2010. "China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Government Policy or Socioeconomic Development?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 419-440, September.
    2. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Yikai Wang & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2015. "Sharing High Growth across Generations: Pensions and Demographic Transition in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 1-39, April.
    3. S. Philip Morgan & Guo Zhigang & Sarah R. Hayford, 2009. "China's Below‐Replacement Fertility: Recent Trends and Future Prospects," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(3), pages 605-629, September.
    4. Wang, Yan & Conesa, Juan Carlos, 2022. "The role of demographics and migration for the future of economic growth in China," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Chen, Quanrun & Dietzenbacher, Erik & Los, Bart, 2015. "The effects of ageing and urbanization on China's future population and labor force," Research Report 15002-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    6. Jung-Hun Yang & Kwang-Woo Nam, 2022. "Modelling the Relationship of Infrastructure and Externalities Using Urban Scaling," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-17, April.
    7. Christophe Z. Guilmoto, 2009. "The Sex Ratio Transition in Asia," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(3), pages 519-549, September.
    8. Wanru Xiong, 2022. "Dynamics between Regional Sex Ratios at Birth and Sex Ratios at Prime Marriageable Ages in China," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(2), pages 545-578, June.
    9. Das Gupta, Monica & Ebenstein, Avraham & Sharygin, Ethan Jennings, 2010. "China's marriage market and upcoming challenges for elderly men," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5351, The World Bank.

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