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China'S Exchange Rate Appreciation In The Light Of The Earlier Japanese Experience

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  • Ronald McKinnon

Abstract

. For creditor countries such as China on the periphery of the dollar standard with current account surpluses, foreign mercantile pressure to appreciate their currencies and become more flexible is misplaced. Just the expectation of variable exchange appreciation seriously disrupts the natural tendency for wage growth to balance productivity growth and thus worsens the (incipient) deflation that China now faces. It could create a zero‐interest liquidity trap in financial markets that leaves the central bank helpless to combat future deflation arising out of actual currency appreciation, as with the earlier experience of Japan.

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  • Ronald McKinnon, 2006. "China'S Exchange Rate Appreciation In The Light Of The Earlier Japanese Experience," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 287-298, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:11:y:2006:i:3:p:287-298
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0106.2006.00316.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhang, Xiaobo & Tan, Kong-Yam, 2004. "Blunt to sharpened razor: incremental reform and distortions in the product and capital markets in China," DSGD discussion papers 13, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huayu Sun, 2009. "Autonomy and Effectiveness of Chinese Monetary Policy under the De Facto Fixed Exchange Rate System," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(3), pages 23-38, May.
    2. Paul De Grauwe & Zhaoyong Zhang & Rod Tyers, 2016. "Slower Growth and Vulnerability to Recession: Updating China's Global Impact," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(1), pages 66-88, February.
    3. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2008. "The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are the Markets Telling Us Something about Where the Renminbi–US Dollar Exchange Rate is Going?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(12), pages 1581-1598, December.
    4. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Real exchange rate determination and the China puzzle," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 28(2), pages 1-32, November.
    5. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American and European Financial Shocks: Implications for Chinese Economic Performance," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-491, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    6. Yuanquan Chen, 2008. "Chinese Economy and Excess Liquidity," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(5), pages 63-82, September.
    7. Robin Pope & Reinhard Selten & Johannes Kaiser & Sebastian Kube & Jürgen Hagen, 2012. "Exchange rate determination: a theory of the decisive role of central bank cooperation and conflict," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 13-51, March.
    8. Pope, Robin & Selten, Reinhard & Kube, Sebastian & Kaiser, Johannes & von Hagen, Jürgen, 2007. "Exchange Rate Determination: A Model of the Decisive Role of Central Bank Cooperation and Conflict," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 18/2007, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    9. Ying Wu, 2010. "Exchange Rates and Prices under Processing Trade: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(3), pages 345-357, September.
    10. Ho, Kin-Yip & Shi, Yanlin & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2018. "Public information arrival, price discovery and dynamic correlations in the Chinese renminbi markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 168-186.
    11. Cho-Hoi Hui & Chi-Fai Lo & Tsz-Kin Chung, 2008. "Market Expectation of Appreciation of the Renminbi," Working Papers 0803, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    12. Robert Lafrance, 2008. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature," Discussion Papers 08-5, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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