IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v177y2014i3p697-723.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the epidemic of financial crises

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos Demiris
  • Theodore Kypraios
  • L. Vanessa Smith

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="rssa12044-abs-0001"> The paper proposes a framework for modelling financial contagion that is based on susceptible–infected–recovered transmission models from epidemic theory. This class of models addresses two important features of contagion modelling, which are a common shortcoming of most existing empirical approaches, namely the direct modelling of the inherent dependences that are involved in the transmission mechanism, and an associated canonical measure of crisis severity. The methodology proposed naturally implies a control mechanism, which is required when evaluating prospective immunization policies that intend to mitigate the effect of a crisis. It can be implemented not only as a way of learning from past experiences, but also at the onset of a contagious financial crisis. The approach is illustrated on a number of currency crisis episodes, using both historical final outcome and temporal data. The latter require the introduction of a novel hierarchical model that we call the hidden epidemic model and which embeds the stochastic financial epidemic as a latent process. The empirical results suggest, among others, an increasing trend for global transmission of currency crises over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Demiris & Theodore Kypraios & L. Vanessa Smith, 2014. "On the epidemic of financial crises," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 177(3), pages 697-723, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:177:y:2014:i:3:p:697-723
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/rssa.2014.177.issue-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eva F. Janssens & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 2024. "Sectoral slowdowns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from transmission probabilities and economic linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 22-40, January.
    2. Raffaele Mattera & Philipp Otto, 2023. "Network log-ARCH models for forecasting stock market volatility," Papers 2303.11064, arXiv.org.
    3. Dávid Csercsik & Hubert János Kiss, 2018. "Optimal Payments to Connected Depositors in Turbulent Times: A Markov Chain Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-14, April.
    4. X. Zhang & L. D. Valdez & H. E. Stanley & L. A. Braunstein, 2019. "Modeling Risk Contagion in the Venture Capital Market: A Multilayer Network Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-11, December.
    5. Eva (E.F.) Janssens & Robin (R.) Lumsdaine & Sebastiaan (S.H.L.C.G.) Vermeulen, 2018. "An Epidemiological Model of Crisis Spread Across Sectors in The United States," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-008/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    6. Grinis, Inna, 2015. "Credit risk spillovers, systemic importance and vulnerability in financial networks," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60954, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Eva F. Janssens & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Sebastiaan H.L.C.G. Vermeulen, 2022. "An Epidemiological Model of Economic Crisis Spread across Sectors in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 885-919, June.
    8. Vagnani, Gianluca & Tian, Jinhuan & Dong, Yan, 2023. "Outward foreign direct greenfield investments and firms predicted long-term stock volatility levels and connectedness. Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    9. Paolo Bartesaghi & Michele Benzi & Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi & Ernesto Estrada, 2019. "Risk-dependent centrality in economic and financial networks," Papers 1907.07908, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:177:y:2014:i:3:p:697-723. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.