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Sentiment Trading and Hedge Fund Returns

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  • YONG CHEN
  • BING HAN
  • JING PAN

Abstract

In the presence of sentiment fluctuations, arbitrageurs may engage in different strategies leading to dispersed sentiment exposures. We find that hedge funds in the top decile ranked by sentiment beta outperform those in the bottom decile by 0.59% per month on a risk‐adjusted basis, with the spread being larger among skilled funds. We also find that about 10% of hedge funds have sentiment timing skill that positively correlates with fund sentiment beta and contributes to fund performance. Our findings show that skilled hedge funds can earn high returns by predicting and exploiting sentiment changes rather than betting against mispricing.

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  • Yong Chen & Bing Han & Jing Pan, 2021. "Sentiment Trading and Hedge Fund Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 2001-2033, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:76:y:2021:i:4:p:2001-2033
    DOI: 10.1111/jofi.13025
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    2. Ling, Yun & Satchell, Stephen & Yao, Juan, 2023. "Decreasing returns to scale and skill in hedge funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikolaos Voukelatos, 2022. "Should hedge funds deviate from the benchmark?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(3), pages 767-795, September.
    4. Matias D. Cattaneo & Richard K. Crump & Weining Wang, 2022. "Beta-Sorted Portfolios," Papers 2208.10974, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    5. Gady Jacoby & Chi Liao & Nanying Lin & Lei Lu, 2024. "Sentiment and the cross‐section of expected stock returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 459-485, May.
    6. Aiken, Adam L. & Kang, Minjeong, 2023. "Hedge fund manager timing and selectivity skill over time. A holdings-based estimate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    7. Yan, Yumeng & Xiong, Xiong & Li, Shuo & Lu, Lei, 2022. "Will temperature change reduce stock returns? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    8. Yi, Shangkun & Wang, Jian & Wang, Xiaoting & Feng, Hongrui, 2022. "CEO political connection and stock sentiment beta: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Chen, Zilin & Da, Zhi & Huang, Dashan & Wang, Liyao, 2023. "Presidential economic approval rating and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 106-131.

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