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Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns

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Author Info
RAVI BANSAL
ROBERT F. DITTMAR
CHRISTIAN T. LUNDBLAD

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Abstract

We show that aggregate consumption risks embodied in cash flows can account for the puzzling differences in risk premia across book-to-market, momentum, and size-sorted portfolios. The dynamics of aggregate consumption and cash flow growth rates, modeled as a vector autoregression, are used to measure the consumption beta of discounted cash flows. Differences in these cash flow betas account for more than 60% of the cross-sectional variation in risk premia. The market price for risk in cash flows is highly significant. We argue that cash flow risk is important for interpreting differences in risk compensation across assets. Copyright 2005 by The American Finance Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2005.00776.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 60 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 (08)
Pages: 1639-1672
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:60:y:2005:i:4:p:1639-1672

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  3. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-run risks and financial markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 283-300. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," NBER Working Papers 13896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Carlo Favero, . "Consumption, Wealth, the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution and Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Working Papers 291, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Ravi Bansal, 2007. "Long-Run Risks and Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 13196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. George M. Constantinides & Anisha Ghosh, 2008. "Asset Pricing Tests with Long Run Risks in Consumption Growth," NBER Working Papers 14543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Mariano M. Croce & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2007. "Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Duration of Risky Cash-Flows," NBER Working Papers 12912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hui Guo & Robert Savickas & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Is value premium a proxy for time-varying investment opportunities: some time series evidence," Working Papers 2005-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  10. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2005. "Cash-Flow Risk, Discount Risk, and the Value Premium," NBER Working Papers 11816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Söderlind, Paul, 2003. "C-CAPM and the Cross-Section of Sharpe Ratios," SIFR Research Report Series 18, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Sydney Ludvigson, 2008. "The Research Agenda: Sydney Ludvigson on Empirical Evaluation of Economic Theories of Risk Premia," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(2), April. [Downloadable!]
  13. Paul Söderlind, 2006. "C-CAPM Refinements and the Cross-Section of Returns," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2006 2006-07, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2003. "The Price is (Almost) Right," NBER Working Papers 10131, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2002. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance and Risk Premia," Macroeconomics 0211008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  16. Andrew Ang & Joseph Chen & Yuhang Xing, 2005. "Downside Risk," NBER Working Papers 11824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Julliard, 2003. "Consumption Risk and Cross-Sectional Returns," NBER Working Papers 9538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2007. "Expectations, Shocks, and Asset Returns," NIPE Working Papers 29/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  19. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Conditional Betas," NBER Working Papers 10413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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