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Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model

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Listed:
  • Arjuna Nebel
  • Alexander Kling
  • Ruben Willamowski
  • Tim Schell

Abstract

After 50 years, there is still an ongoing debate about the Limits to Growth (LtG) study. This paper recalibrates the 2005 World3‐03 model. The input parameters are changed to better match empirical data on world development. An iterative method is used to compute and optimize different parameter sets. This improved parameter set results in a World3 simulation that shows the same overshoot and collapse mode in the coming decade as the original business as usual scenario of the LtG standard run. The main effect of the recalibration update is to raise the peaks of most variables and move them a few years into the future. The parameters with the largest relative changes are those related to industrial capital lifetime, pollution transmission delay, and urban‐industrial land development time.

Suggested Citation

  • Arjuna Nebel & Alexander Kling & Ruben Willamowski & Tim Schell, 2024. "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 28(1), pages 87-99, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:28:y:2024:i:1:p:87-99
    DOI: 10.1111/jiec.13442
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gaya Herrington, 2021. "Update to limits to growth: Comparing the World3 model with empirical data," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(3), pages 614-626, June.
    2. Nordhaus, William D, 1973. "World Dynamics: Measurement Without Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 83(332), pages 1156-1183, December.
    3. Wamsler, Christine & Brink, Ebba, 2018. "Mindsets for Sustainability: Exploring the Link Between Mindfulness and Sustainable Climate Adaptation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 55-61.
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