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Budget Deficits and Inflation: The Roles of Central Bank Independence and Financial Market Development

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  • Bilin Neyapti

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between budget deficits and inflation with the view that the nature of this relationship depends on the characteristics of monetary and financial institutions. The main hypothesis is that budget deficits are especially inflationary when both the central bank is not independent and the financial market is not developed enough to contain inflationary expectations. The empirical analysis using a panel data that comprises 54 developed and less developed countries, with one to two decades of observations for each, supports this hypothesis. The findings are also robust to subsets of the sample. (JEL E58, H62)

Suggested Citation

  • Bilin Neyapti, 2003. "Budget Deficits and Inflation: The Roles of Central Bank Independence and Financial Market Development," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(4), pages 458-475, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:coecpo:v:21:y:2003:i:4:p:458-475
    DOI: 10.1093/cep/byg025
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    Cited by:

    1. Abel M. Agoba, 2021. "Minimising the inflationary impact of fiscal deficits in Africa: The role of monetary, financial and political institutions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 724-740, January.
    2. Bhattacharya, Rudrani & Tripathi, Shruti & Chowdhury, Sahana Roy, 2019. "Financial structure, institutional quality and monetary policy transmission: A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers 19/274, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    3. Hermann Sintim-Aboagye, 2005. "Emerging Economies, Turnover Rates and Inflation Variability: A Comparison of Generalized Maximum Likelihood and SUR Models," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 167-178, June.
    4. Nolivos, Roberto Delhy & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2014. "The role of central bank independence on optimal taxation and seigniorage," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 440-458.
    5. Hermann Sintim-Aboagye & David Tufte, 2006. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation Variability, and the Revenue Smoothing Hypothesis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 12(2), pages 147-160, May.
    6. Yaya Keho, 2016. "Budget deficits, money supply and price level in West Africa," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(5), pages 1-8, October.
    7. Strong, Christine & Yayi, Constant, 2021. "Central bank independence, fiscal deficits and currency union: Lessons from Africa," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Tadadjeu Wemba, Dessy-Karl & Essiane, Patrick-Nelson Daniel, 2018. "Autonomie des Banques Centrales et Finances Publiques en Afrique subsaharienne [Autonomy of Central Banks and Public Finances in Sub-saharan Africa]," MPRA Paper 100828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ourania Dimakou, 2010. "Central Bank Independence, Bureaucratic Corruption and Fiscal Responses - Empirical Evidence," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1012, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    10. Hyunwoo Kim, 2023. "Monetary technocracy and democratic accountability: how central bank independence conditions economic voting," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 939-964, May.
    11. Kamal, Mona, 2010. "الإطار النظرى للتنسيق بين السياستين المالية والنقدية [The Theoretical Framework for the Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Polices]," MPRA Paper 26856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bilin Neyapti & Secil Ozgur, 2007. "The Effects Of Fiscal And Monetary Discipline On Budgetary Outcomes," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 25(2), pages 146-155, April.
    13. Aijaz Ahmad Bhat & Javaid Iqbal Khan & Sajad Ahmad Bhat & Javed Ahmad Bhat, 2023. "Central Bank Independence and Inflation in India: The Role of Financial Development," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 392-407, October.
    14. Guillermo Vuletin & Ling Zhu, 2011. "Replacing a “Disobedient” Central Bank Governor with a “Docile” One: A Novel Measure of Central Bank Independence and Its Effect on Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 1185-1215, September.
    15. repec:pra:mprapa:61939 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:kap:iaecre:v:12:y:2006:i:2:p:147-160 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Eric Wang & Eskander Alvi, 2011. "Relative Efficiency of Government Spending and Its Determinants: Evidence from East Asian Countries," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 1(1), pages 3-28, June.
    18. Cristina Bodea, 2013. "Independent central banks, regime type, and fiscal performance: the case of post-communist countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(1), pages 81-107, April.
    19. Salahodjaev, Raufhon, 2015. "Does intelligence help fighting inflation: an empirical test?," MPRA Paper 66882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Jácome, Luis I. & Vázquez, Francisco, 2008. "Is there any link between legal central bank independence and inflation? Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 788-801, December.
    21. Hove, Seedwell & Tchana Tchana, Fulbert & Touna Mama, Albert, 2017. "Do monetary, fiscal and financial institutions really matter for inflation targeting in emerging market economies?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 128-149.
    22. Hyunwoo Kim, 2023. "The microfoundation of macroeconomic populism: The effects of economic inequality on public inflation aversion," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 65-96, March.
    23. Qichun He & Heng-fu Zou, 2018. "Central Bank Independence and Inflation: Schumpeterian Theory and Evidence," CEMA Working Papers 606, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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