IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/chinae/v32y2024i2p97-124.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Structural Measurement of the Valuation Effect of China's External Assets: Method and Application

Author

Listed:
  • Guowei Cai
  • Xiaowei Chen
  • Xun Wang

Abstract

Existing research on the measurement of the valuation effect mainly follows the residual method proposed by Lane and Milesi‐Ferretti (2001). This cannot be used to perform structural decomposition. We propose an aggregation approach rather than the residual method to measure structurally the investment flow and valuation effect of China's external assets. The results indicate that the valuation effect of China's external assets has been highly volatile and it was negative during the pandemic period. The structural decomposition shows that portfolio investment and direct investment made the main contributions to the valuation effect. The impact of exchange rates on the valuation effect has generally been higher than that of asset price in terms of direct investment and total external assets but the opposite has been true for portfolio investment. China's outward investments are currently more inclined to Asian countries and a few European countries but inflows to China still mainly come from developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Guowei Cai & Xiaowei Chen & Xun Wang, 2024. "A Structural Measurement of the Valuation Effect of China's External Assets: Method and Application," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 32(2), pages 97-124, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:32:y:2024:i:2:p:97-124
    DOI: 10.1111/cwe.12527
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12527
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/cwe.12527?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bénétrix, Agustin S. & Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2015. "International currency exposures, valuation effects and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 98-109.
    2. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-540, March.
    3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, August.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(1), pages 67-146.
    5. Fei Nie & Jian Li & Xiaoli Etienne & Gucheng Li, 2023. "Impact of Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Chinese Manufacturing Firms' Financialization and Servitization," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(2), pages 112-136, March.
    6. Luke Deer & Ligang Song, 2013. "International Financial Adjustment for China: A Financial Valuation Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(1), pages 1-25, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alberto Fuertes, 2022. "External adjustment with a common currency: the case of the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2205-2238, May.
    2. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut, 2021. "Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 117, pages 1-1.
    3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Helene Rey & Nicolas Govillot, 2010. "Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    4. Bergant, Katharina, 2021. "The role of stock-flow adjustment during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    6. António Afonso & Florence Huart & João Tovar Jalles & Piotr Stanek, 2019. "Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 320-348, February.
    7. Nelson Camanho & Harald Hau & Hélène Rey, 2022. "Global Portfolio Rebalancing and Exchange Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(11), pages 5228-5274.
    8. Ibrahim D. Raheem & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2022. "A new approach to exchange rate forecast: The role of global financial cycle and time‐varying parameters," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2836-2848, July.
    9. Gustavo Adler & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia, 2018. "The Stabilizing Role of Net Foreign Asset Returns," IMF Working Papers 2018/079, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Le, Dieu Thanh & Park, Hail, 2020. "Valuation effects of capital inflows: Evidence from emerging market economies," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Hale, Galina & Juvenal, Luciana, 2023. "External Balance Sheets and the COVID-19 Crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    12. Agustin S. Benetrix & Beren Demirolmez & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "The shock absorbing role of cross-border investments: net positions versus currency composition," Trinity Economics Papers tep0421, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    13. Raheem, Ibrahim & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "A new approach to exchange rate forecast: The role of global financial cycle and time-varying parameters," MPRA Paper 105359, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Georgiadis, Georgios & Zhu, Feng, 2021. "Foreign-currency exposures and the financial channel of exchange rates: Eroding monetary policy autonomy in small open economies?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    15. Georgios Georgiadis & Feng Zhu, 2019. "Monetary policy spillovers, capital controls and exchange rate flexibility, and the financial channel of exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 797, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Fritz Breuss & Werner Roeger & Jan in’t Veld, 2009. "Global impact of a shift in foreign reserves to euros," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-122, February.
    17. Evans, Martin D.D., 2014. "External balances, trade flows and financial conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 271-290.
    18. Georgiadis, Georgios & Schumann, Ben, 2021. "Dominant-currency pricing and the global output spillovers from US dollar appreciation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    19. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Dedola, Luca & Rivolta, Giulia & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "If the Fed sneezes, who catches a cold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 23-41.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:32:y:2024:i:2:p:97-124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwepacn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.