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Assessing the Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Bilateral Agricultural Trade

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  • Jungho Baek
  • Won W. Koo

Abstract

This paper uses an autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration to examine the short‐ and long‐run effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral trade of agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. Results show that, in the long run, while U.S. agricultural exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates and foreign income, U.S. agricultural imports are mostly responsive to the U.S. domestic income. In the short run, on the other hand, both the bilateral exchange rates and income in the United States and its trading partners are found to have significant impacts on U.S. agricultural exports and imports. Dans le présent article, nous avons utilisé un modèle autorégressif à retards échelonnés (autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration) pour examiner les effets à court et à long terme des variations de taux de change sur le commerce bilatéral des produits agricoles entre les États‐Unis et ses dix principaux partenaires commerciaux. Les résultats ont montré que, à long terme, bien que les exportations agricoles des États‐Unis soient très sensibles aux taux de change bilatéraux et au revenu étranger, les importations agricoles des États‐Unis sont principalement sensibles au revenu intérieur des États‐Unis. À court terme, par contre, les taux de change bilatéraux et le revenu des États‐Unis et de ses partenaires commerciaux ont des répercussions considérables sur les exportations et les importations agricoles des États‐Unis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jungho Baek & Won W. Koo, 2009. "Assessing the Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Bilateral Agricultural Trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(2), pages 187-203, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:57:y:2009:i:2:p:187-203
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2009.01147.x
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    3. Mauricio Vaz Lobo Bittencourt & Paula Andrea Mosquera Agudelo, 2021. "The impacts of the exchange rate volatility on colombian trade with its main trade partners," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 18(2), pages 57-81, Julio-Dic.
    4. Marilyne Huchet & J. Korinek, 2011. "To what extent do exchange rates and their volatility affect trade ?," Post-Print hal-00729403, HAL.
    5. Hurley, Dene T. & Papanikolaou, Nikolaos, 2021. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis of U.S.-China commodity trade dynamics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 454-467.
    6. Cheng, Ka Ming, 2020. "Currency devaluation and trade balance: Evidence from the US services trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 20-37.
    7. Donggyu Lee & Jungho Baek, 2018. "Stock Prices of Renewable Energy Firms: Are There Asymmetric Responses to Oil Price Changes?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-8, November.
    8. Junwook Chi, 2015. "Dynamic Impacts of Income and the Exchange Rate on US Tourism, 1960–2011," Tourism Economics, , vol. 21(5), pages 1047-1060, October.
    9. Sirikul Tulasombat & Somchai Ratanakomut, 2015. "The Effect of Exchange Rates on Agricultural Goods for Export: A Case of Thailand," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11.
    10. Stephen Devadoss & Amy Hilland & Ron Mittelhammer & John Foltz, 2014. "The effects of the Yuan-dollar exchange rate on agricultural commodity trade between the United States, China, and their competitors," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(S1), pages 23-37, November.
    11. Geraldo Moreira Bittencourt & Antônio Carvalho Campo, 2014. "Efeitos Da Instabilidade Da Taxa De Câmbio No Comércio Setorial Entre Brasil E Seus Principais Parceiros Comerciais," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 105, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    12. Zaid Ashiq Khan & Mansoor Ahmed Koondhar & Noshaba Aziz & Uzair Ali & Liu Tianjun, 2020. "Revisiting the effects of relevant factors on Pakistan's agricultural products export," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 66(12), pages 527-541.

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