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An econometric analysis of salience theory

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  • Kelvin Balcombe
  • Iain Fraser
  • Abhijit Sharma

Abstract

In this paper, we econometrically examine the performance of salience theory (ST) for explaining observed behavior outside of a fully defined state contingent setting. Using a well‐known dataset, we find that only a minority of people act consistently in the way proposed by ST when confronted with lottery choices for which only marginal probabilities are presented. By estimating the implied dependence structure of payoffs consistent with ST, only a minority of people infer independent payoffs when attaching probabilities to states, a finding at odds with ST. Instead, a majority treat lotteries as having positively correlated payoffs which raise questions about the independence assumption in ST. Finally, we also find that ST explains choice behavior less consistently than expected utility. Thus, ST should not be assumed to be superior to the most prominent models within the literature when employed outside of particular contexts.

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  • Kelvin Balcombe & Iain Fraser & Abhijit Sharma, 2021. "An econometric analysis of salience theory," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 545-554, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:73:y:2021:i:4:p:545-554
    DOI: 10.1111/boer.12264
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Henry Stott, 2006. "Cumulative prospect theory's functional menagerie," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 101-130, March.
    6. Kontek, Krzysztof, 2016. "A critical note on Salience Theory of choice under risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 168-171.
    7. Königsheim, C. & Lukas, M. & Nöth, M., 2019. "Salience theory: Calibration and heterogeneity in probability distortion," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 477-495.
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