IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ausecr/v55y2022i4p441-460.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Public Debt: What Measures Should We Use? A Case Study of Public Debt in Mid‐ and Post‐pandemic Australia and Its Economic, Policy and Social Consequences

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Zwalf
  • Robin Scott

Abstract

The COVID‐19 pandemic saw governments around the world suddenly accumulate substantially higher levels of public debt. We consider the level of debt entered into by Australia's federal, state and territory governments and compare this against three metrics for debt sustainability. Using these measures, we find that current and future public debt levels sit within what is regarded as sustainable by scholarly and practitioner opinion. However, we note that recent increases in interest rates will challenge this. We conclude by outlining a range of economic, social and policy challenges arising from the new high public debt environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Zwalf & Robin Scott, 2022. "Public Debt: What Measures Should We Use? A Case Study of Public Debt in Mid‐ and Post‐pandemic Australia and Its Economic, Policy and Social Consequences," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 55(4), pages 441-460, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:55:y:2022:i:4:p:441-460
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8462.12482
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8462.12482
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1467-8462.12482?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malcolm J. Abbott, 1996. "The Real Structural Imbalance and Fiscal Stance in Australia during the Postwar Era," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 29(4), pages 385-398, October.
    2. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014. "Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
    3. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    4. Falilou Fall & Jean-Marc Fournier, 2015. "Macroeconomic uncertainties, prudent debt targets and fiscal rules," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1230, OECD Publishing.
    5. Olivier Blanchard, 2018. "On the future of macroeconomic models," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 43-54.
    6. Katrina Di Marco & Mitchell Pirie & Wilson Au-Yeung, 2009. "A history of public debt in Australia," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 1, pages 1-15, March.
    7. Barcza, György, 2015. "The Changing Role of Public Debt in Economics and the Basic Principles of Hungarian Debt Management," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 60(4), pages 433-446.
    8. Arne Heise, 2002. "Optimal Public Debts, Sustainable Deficits, and Budgetary Consolidation," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 319-337, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Séverine MENGUY, 2019. "Does public indebtedness constrain or can it favor economic growth? A simple analytical modeling," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 1-29.
    2. Janice Boucher Breuer & John McDermott, 2019. "Debt And Depression," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 714-730, October.
    3. Magdalena Osińska & Tadeusz Kufel & Marcin Błażejowski & Paweł Kufel, 2020. "Modeling mechanism of economic growth using threshold autoregression models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1381-1430, March.
    4. Dias, Daniel A. & Richmond, Christine & Wright, Mark L.J., 2014. "The stock of external sovereign debt: Can we take the data at ‘face value’?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 1-17.
    5. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    6. Mitze, Timo & Matz, Florian, 2015. "Public debt and growth in German federal states: What can Europe learn?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 208-228.
    7. Yun Jung Kim & Jing Zhang, 2021. "The Relationship Between Debt and Output," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 230-257, March.
    8. Balázs Egert, 2013. "The 90% public debt threshold: The rise and fall of a stylised fact," Working Papers hal-04141189, HAL.
    9. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "The ‘other half’ of the public debt–economic growth relationship: a note on Reinhart and Rogoff," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 20-28, April.
    10. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    11. Falilou Fall & Debra Bloch & Jean-Marc Fournier & Peter Hoeller, 2015. "Prudent debt targets and fiscal frameworks," OECD Economic Policy Papers 15, OECD Publishing.
    12. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    13. Ben Ltaief, Leila, 2014. "Dette publique et croissance économique : investigation empirique pour la zone euro, l’Union européenne et les pays avancés," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 90(2), pages 79-103, Juin.
    14. P. B. Zondi & Z. Robinson, 2021. "The Relationship between Government Debt and Economic Growth in South Africa with Specific Reference to Eskom," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(40), pages 17-34, November.
    15. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    16. Vipul Bhatt & Andre R. Neveu, 2019. "Re-Thinking Debt Burden: Going with the Flow?," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 179-203, April.
    17. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    18. Markus Ahlborn & Rainer Schweickert, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth – economic systems matter," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 373-403, April.
    19. Sokbae (Simon) Lee & Hyunmin Park & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2014. "A contribution to the Reinhart and Rogoff debate: not 90 percent but maybe 30 percent," CeMMAP working papers CWP39/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    20. Willem Vanlaer & Wim Marneffe & Lode Vereeck & Johan Vanovertveldt, 2015. "Does debt predict growth? An empirical analysis of the relationship between total debt and economic output," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 4(2), pages 79-103, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:55:y:2022:i:4:p:441-460. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/mimelau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.