IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/asiaec/v38y2024i1p3-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of COVID‐19 pandemic on the Thai economy and the effectiveness of monetary policy: A Bayesian DSGE model approach

Author

Listed:
  • Samuel Kwesi Dunyo
  • Saran Sarntisart

Abstract

This study estimates a medium‐scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Thai economy to evaluate the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic containment policy on key macroeconomic aggregates. The shock to labor supply is considered as the main transmission channel. The paper discussed the role of monetary policy in regard to economic recovery and also identified the dominant shocks driving the business cycle. Thai quarterly series from 2011Q1 to 2021Q2 is used for the Bayesian estimation of the model. Though the pandemic shock caused a sharp decline in output, consumption and investment, the results suggest a fast recovery in the growth rates of the variables in about 2.5 years. At the same time, the dominant shocks that account for output variation in the medium to long term are investment, labor supply and productivity shocks. Monetary policy is effective in shortening the recovery due to its impact on private investment. The key drivers of Thai household consumption in the long run are investment, labor supply and productivity shocks. On average, the investment shock appears to be the key driver of the business cycle at all horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel Kwesi Dunyo & Saran Sarntisart, 2024. "The impact of COVID‐19 pandemic on the Thai economy and the effectiveness of monetary policy: A Bayesian DSGE model approach," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 3-34, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaec:v:38:y:2024:i:1:p:3-34
    DOI: 10.1111/asej.12316
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/asej.12316
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/asej.12316?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2020. "SME Failures Under Large Liquidity Shocks: An Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," NBER Working Papers 27877, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    3. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    4. Gelain, Paolo & Ilbas, Pelin, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policies in an estimated model with financial intermediation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 164-189.
    5. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    6. Kamphol Panyagometh, 2020. "The Effects of Pandemic Event on the Stock Exchange of Thailand," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-22, October.
    7. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    8. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    9. Edward P. Herbst & Frank Schorfheide, 2016. "Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10612.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    11. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Fiscal policy during a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brinca, Pedro & Duarte, Joao B. & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Measuring labor supply and demand shocks during COVID-19," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Verónica Acurio Vásconez & Olivier Damette & David W. Shanafelt, 2021. "Macroepidemics and unconventional monetary policy: Coupling macroeconomics and epidemiology in a financial DSGE-SIR framework," Working Papers of BETA 2021-04, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Inoue, Atsushi & Kuo, Chun-Hung & Rossi, Barbara, 2020. "Identifying the sources of model misspecification," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Alexander Mihailov & Giovanni Razzu & Zhe Wang, 2019. "Heterogeneous effects of single monetary policy on unemployment rates in the largest EMU economies," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-07, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    6. Villa, Stefania, 2013. "Financial frictions in the euro area: a Bayesian assessment," Working Paper Series 1521, European Central Bank.
    7. Jordi Galí, 2011. "The Return Of The Wage Phillips Curve," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 436-461, June.
    8. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    9. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01082491, HAL.
    10. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2016. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999–2008: Can they be blamed for intra-euro area imbalances?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 307-324.
    11. Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W. & Grajales-Olarte, Anderson & Uras, Burak R., 2020. "Heterogeneity In Wage Setting Behavior In A New-Keynesian Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1512-1546, September.
    12. Laureys, Lien & Meeks, Roland & Wanengkirtyo, Boromeus, 2021. "Optimal simple objectives for monetary policy when banks matter," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Pompa Rangel, Antonio, 2020. "What do Latin American inflation targeters care about? A comparative Bayesian estimation of central bank preferences," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Dey, Jaya, 2014. "Evaluating monetary policy under preferences with zero wealth effect: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 209-234.
    15. Lie, Denny, 2021. "Implications of state-dependent pricing for DSGE model-based policy analysis in Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 532-552.
    16. Pelin Ilbas & Øistein Røisland & Tommy Sveen, 2013. "The Influence of the Taylor rule on US monetary policy," Working Paper Research 241, National Bank of Belgium.
    17. Massimiliano Marcellino & Yuliya Rychalovska, 2012. "An estimated DSGE model of a Small Open Economy within the Monetary Union: Forecasting and Structural Analysis," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/34, European University Institute.
    18. Barseghyan Gayane, 2013. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model for Armenian Economy," EERC Working Paper Series 13/11e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    19. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2018. "Leaning Against Windy Bank Lending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 460-482, January.
    20. Luca Sala & Ulf Söderström & Antonella Trigari, 2013. "Structural and Cyclical Forces in the Labor Market during the Great Recession: Cross-Country Evidence," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 345-404.
    21. Thierry Betti & Thomas Coudert, 2022. "How harmful are cuts in public employment and wage in times of high unemployment?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(1), pages 247-277, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:asiaec:v:38:y:2024:i:1:p:3-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.