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Dépenses militaires et croissance économique dans l'UEMOA: une analyse des effets de seuil et des canaux de transmission

Author

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  • Nimonka Bayale
  • Babatunde Mohamed Sanny Gado
  • Niim‐Bénoua Nahum Sambieni
  • Komla Kuma Esobiyu Tchala

Abstract

Cet article détermine, à travers une approche non linéaire, le seuil de dépenses militaires compatible avec l'objectif de croissance économique. En appliquant un modèle de seuil endogène sur les données en panel des huit pays membres de l'UEMOA, sur la période 1995–2019, les estimations mettent en évidence l'existence d'un seuil de dépenses militaires estimé à 2,48% du PIB dans l'Union. Elles indiquent également que lorsque les dépenses militaires sont à un niveau inférieur à ce seuil, leur effet sur la croissance des États de l'Union est positif et significatif. En revanche, les valeurs supérieures à ce seuil n'apparaissent pas favorables à la croissance économique dans l'UEMOA. En outre, l'étude a identifié deux principaux canaux de transmission des dépenses militaires à la croissance économique dans ces pays, à savoir le capital humain et la stabilité politique. A cet égard, les pays de l'UEMOA devraient limiter les dépenses de défense et de sécurité à 2,48% du PIB au maximum, sauf si le niveau de l'insécurité justifie le dépassement de ce seuil.

Suggested Citation

  • Nimonka Bayale & Babatunde Mohamed Sanny Gado & Niim‐Bénoua Nahum Sambieni & Komla Kuma Esobiyu Tchala, 2024. "Dépenses militaires et croissance économique dans l'UEMOA: une analyse des effets de seuil et des canaux de transmission," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 41-54, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:afrdev:v:36:y:2024:i:1:p:41-54
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8268.12731
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