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Inflation expectations and the great recession

Author

Listed:
  • Petra Gerlach
  • Peter Hördahl
  • Richhild Moessner

Abstract

This article examines whether short-run inflation expectations and indicators of long-term credibility have been affected by the great recession and by the policies to counter it. Measures of short-run expectations dropped in the crisis, particularly in advanced economies, but have since rebounded. Measures of long-run inflation expectations have in general fluctuated around a relatively stable level, suggesting continued central bank credibility. At the same time, dispersion and uncertainty measures of long-term inflation expectations are somewhat higher than before the crisis, raising questions about how firmly expectations are anchored.

Suggested Citation

  • Petra Gerlach & Peter Hördahl & Richhild Moessner, 2011. "Inflation expectations and the great recession," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1103f
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gabriela Galati & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 167-207, March.
    2. Wändi Bruine De Bruin & Charles F. Manski & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2011. "Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 454-478, April.
    3. Tristani, Oreste & Hördahl, Peter, 2010. "Inflation risk premia in the US and the euro area," Working Paper Series 1270, European Central Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. South African Reserve Bank, 2017. "Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 2017/02," Working Papers 7851, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Oya Celasun & Mr. Lev Ratnovski & Miss Roxana Mihet, 2012. "Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2012/089, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Aleksei Netšunajev & Lars Winkelmann, 2016. "International dynamics of inflation expectations," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    4. Boris Hofmann & Feng Zhu, 2013. "Central bank asset purchases and inflation expectations," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    5. Jan Acedanski & Julia Wlodarczyk, 2016. "Dispersion Of Inflation Expectations In The European Union During The Global Financial Crisis," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 737-749, December.
    6. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2011. "Joint Economic Forecast – Autumn 2011: Economic Upswing in Germany – Adverse Effects on the German Economy from the European Debt Crisis," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(20), pages 03-71, October.
    7. Tomasz Lyziak, 2016. "Financial crisis, low inflation environment and short-term inflation expectations in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 285-300.
    8. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Richhild Moessner & Rina Rosenblatt-Wisch, 2018. "Computing Long-Term Market Inflation Expectations for Countries without Inflation Expectation Markets," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(3), pages 23-48, September.
    9. Tomasz Łyziak, 2016. "The impact of financial crisis and low inflation environment on short-term inflation expectations in Poland," NBP Working Papers 235, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    10. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Richhild Mössner, 2014. "Inflation Expectations, Central Bank Credibility and the Global Financial Crisis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 150(II), pages 55-87, June.
    11. Armantier, Olivier & Koşar, Gizem & Pomerantz, Rachel & Skandalis, Daphné & Smith, Kyle & Topa, Giorgio & van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2021. "How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 443-469.
    12. Boris Hofmann & Bilyana Bogdanova, 2012. "Taylor rules and monetary policy: a global "Great Deviation"?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    13. Ross Kendall & Tim Ng, 2013. "Estimated Taylor Rules updated for the post-crisis period," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2013/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    14. Paniagua Pablo, 2016. "The Stability Properties of Monetary Constitutions," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 22(2), pages 113-138, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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