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Martingale Property of Exchange Rates and Central Bank Interventions

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Author Info
Yilmaz, Kamil

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Abstract

This article uses the variance ratio-based multiple comparison test and the Richardson-Smith Wald test procedures to test for the martingale property of daily exchange rates of seven major currencies vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar. To allow for the possibility that exchange rates are not governed by a single process throughout the float, the test statistics are calculated and plotted for fixed-length moving subsample windows rather than being applied to the full sample. The results show that exchange rates do not always follow the martingale process. During the times of coordinated central bank interventions, exchange rates deviate from the martingale property.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 383-95
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:21:y:2003:i:3:p:383-95

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  1. Kaltenbrunner, Annina & Nissanke, Machiko, 2009. "The Case for an Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime with Endogenizing Market Structures and Capital Mobility," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  2. Young-Sook Lee & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2005. "Revisiting the Martingale hypothesis for exchange rates," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 19, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Serineh Najarian & H. L. Leon, 2003. "Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 03/159, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-10-27.


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