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Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers

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Author Info
Van Dijk, Dick
Franses, Philip Hans
Lucas, Andre

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Abstract

Regime-switching models, like the smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model, are typically applied to time series of moderate length. Hence, the nonlinear features that these models intend to describe may be reflected in only a few observations. Conversely, neglected outliers in a linear time series of moderate length may incorrectly suggest STAR (or other) type(s of) nonlinearity. In this article, the authors propose outlier robust tests for STAR-type nonlinearity. These tests are designed such that they have a better level and power behavior than standard nonrobust tests in situations with outliers. They formally derive local and global robustness properties of the new tests. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show the practical usefulness of the robust tests. An application to several quarterly industrial production indexes illustrates that apparent nonlinearity in time series sometimes seems due to only a few outliers.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.

Volume (Year): 17 (1999)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 217-35
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Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:17:y:1999:i:2:p:217-35

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S119-36, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
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  3. Hoek, Henk & Lucas, Andre & van Dijk, Herman K., 1995. "Classical and Bayesian aspects of robust unit root inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 27-59, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Rita Luukkonen & Timo Terasvirta, 1991. "Testing Linearity of Economic Time Series against Cyclical Asymmetry," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 20-21, pages 07, Octobre-m. [Downloadable!]
  5. Peracchi, Franco, 1990. "Robust M-Tests," Working Papers 90-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1994. "Large Shocks, Small Shocks, and Economic Fluctuations: Outliers in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 181-200, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jussi Tolvi, 2001. "Outliers in eleven Finnish macroeconomic time series," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 14-32, Spring. [Downloadable!]
  2. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2001. "Detecting Mutiple Breaks in Financial Market Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-65, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2006. "Não Linearidade Nos Ciclos De Negócios: Modelo Auto-Regressivo “Smooth Transition” Para O Índice Geral De Produção Industrial Brasileiro E Bens De Capital," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 10, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael G. Arghyrou & Andros Gregoriou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2007. "Do real interest rates converge? Evidence from the European Union," Working Papers 2007_21, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
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  5. M Sensier & D R Osborn & N Öcal, 2002. "Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 10, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jesús Otero & Jeremy Smith, 2005. "The KPSS Test with Outliers," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 59-67, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "The Effect of Data Transformation on Common Cycle, Cointegration and Unit Root Tests: Monte Carlo Results and a Simple Test," Departmental Working Papers 200322, Rutgers University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  8. D.J. Van Dijk & P.H. Franses, 2003. "Selecting a nonlinear time series model using weighted tests of equal forecast accuracy," Econometric Institute Report 315, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
  9. PREMINGER, Arie & SAKATA, Shinichi, 2005. "A model selection method for S-estimation," CORE Discussion Papers 2005073, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
  10. PREMINGER, Arie & FRANCK, Raphael, 2005. "Forecasting exchange rates: a robust regression approach," CORE Discussion Papers 2005025, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE). [Downloadable!]
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