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What Drives Movements in Exchange Rates?

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Understanding what causes the exchange rate to move has been on ongoing challenge for economists. Despite extensive research, traditional macro models of exchange rate determination--with the exception of the Bank of Canada's exchange rate equation--have typically not fared well, motivating economists to explore new ways to model exchange rate movements that incorporate more complex and realistic settings. Within the context of the sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004, Bailliu and King review the macroeconomic models of exchange rates, as well as the micro-structure studies that highlight the importance of trading mechanisms, information asymmetry, and investor heterogeneity for explaining short-term dynamics in exchange rates. In addition to summarizing the current state of knowledge, they highlight recent advances and identify promising alternative approaches.

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  • Jeannine Bailliu & Michael R. King, 2005. "What Drives Movements in Exchange Rates?," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2005(Autumn), pages 27-39.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:2005:y:2005:i:autumn05:p:27-39
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    2. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Martin Mühleisen, 2006. "Energy, the Exchange Rate, and the Economy: Macroeconomic Benefits of Canada’s Oil Sands Production," IMF Working Papers 2006/070, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Mendy, David & Widodo, Tri, 2018. "Two Stage Markov Switching Model: Identifying the Indonesian Rupiah Per US Dollar Turning Points Post 1997 Financial Crisis," MPRA Paper 86728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Time-varying exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk pricing in the Canadian Equity Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 451-463.
    5. Corinne Winters, 2008. "The Carry Trade, Portfolio Diversification, and the Adjustment of the Japanese Yen," Discussion Papers 08-2, Bank of Canada.
    6. Antonio Diez De Los Rios, 2009. "Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(4), pages 755-766, June.
    7. David Dupuis & Philippe Marcil, 2008. "The Effects of Recent Relative Price Movements on the Canadian Economy," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2008(Autumn), pages 45-55.
    8. Anokye M. Adam & Kwabena Kyei & Simiso Moyo & Ryan Gill & Emmanuel N. Gyamfi, 2022. "Multifrequency network for SADC exchange rate markets using EEMD-based DCCA," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 145-166, January.
    9. Teneng, Dean, 2013. "Outperforming the naïve Random Walk forecast of foreign exchange daily closing prices using Variance Gamma and normal inverse Gaussian Levy processes," MPRA Paper 47851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Maud Korley & Evangelos Giouvris, 2021. "The Regime-Switching Behaviour of Exchange Rates and Frontier Stock Market Prices in Sub-Saharan Africa," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-30, March.
    11. Radhakrishnan, Suresh & Tsang, Albert, 2011. "The valuation-relevance of the foreign translation adjustment: The effect of barriers to entry," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 431-458.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Canada: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/041, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Martin Eichenbaum & Benjamin Johannsen & Sergio Rebelo, 2018. "Understanding the Volatility of the Canadian Exchange Rate," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 502, February.

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