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Macroeconomic assessment of possible Green Recovery scenarios in Visegrad countries

Author

Listed:
  • Bence Kiss-Dobronyi

    (Cambridge Econometrics, Budapest, Hungary)

  • Dora Fazekas

    (Cambridge Econometrics, Budapest, Hungary)

  • Hector Pollitt

    (Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, UK)

Abstract

The article discusses how and why Green Recovery could be beneficial for the Visegrad countries based on a modelling exercise using the E3ME macroeconometric model. Green Recovery is defined as including policies in recovery plans that not only target economic recovery, but also contribute to environmental targets. The paper proposes that a Green Recovery could be valuable and suitable for the region contributing to both restoring employment and boosting economic activity as well as reaching climate goals. This is tested through a macroeconomic simulation, using the E3ME model. E3ME is built on Post-Keynesian economic theory and on econometric estimations of macroeconomic relationships. The results of the analysis focus on three dimensions: (1) social – employment, (2) environmental – level of CO2 emissions and (3) economic activity – gross domestic product (GDP). Outcomes indicate that a green recovery can shorten the time needed for employment and economic recovery as well as contributes to CO2 emission reductions. In Hungary, Czechia and Poland, the impact persists into the long-term; however, the paper also concludes that countries with high reliance on coal (e.g. Poland) could return to coal in the long term if no further policies are introduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Bence Kiss-Dobronyi & Dora Fazekas & Hector Pollitt, 2021. "Macroeconomic assessment of possible Green Recovery scenarios in Visegrad countries," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 43(3), pages 227-252, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:aka:soceco:v:43:y:2021:i:3:p:227-252
    DOI: 10.1556/204.2021.00014
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Ping-Kuo & Ye, Yong & Wen, Ming-Hui, 2023. "Efficiency of metaverse on the improvement of the green procurement policy of semiconductor supply chain – based on behaviour perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Green Recovery; renewable energy; V4 countries; Covid-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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