IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aio/aucsse/v1y2011i10p100-109.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Evolution Of The Romanian Public Debt During The Last 10 Years

Author

Listed:
  • Lecturer Gheorghița Dincă Ph. D, Assoc. Prof. Marius Sorin Dincă Ph. D

    (Transilvania University of Brașov Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Brașov, Romania)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the correlation between the evolution of the Romanian public debt and several variables which, in our opinion, might influence it, such as: the GDP, the volume of the public revenues and expenditures, the budgetary deficit as a ratio of GDP and as an absolute value, the public debt service, the Leu-Euro exchange rate and the implicit interest rate for public debt. In the econometric test of the relation between the public debt and the fore mentioned variables we used the multiple regression method. The results obtained from testing the model have shown that the public debt is greatly influenced by the public debt service, the exchange rate and the interest rate for public loans. In the same time, the model allows forecasts regarding the evolution of the public debt according to evolution of the significant variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Lecturer Gheorghița Dincă Ph. D, Assoc. Prof. Marius Sorin Dincă Ph. D, 2011. "The Evolution Of The Romanian Public Debt During The Last 10 Years," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 4(39), pages 100-109, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aio:aucsse:v:1:y:2011:i:10:p:100-109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://feaa.ucv.ro/AUCSSE/0039v4-013.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    2. Neil Rankin & Barbara Roffia, 2003. "Maximum Sustainable Government Debt in the Overlapping Generations Model," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(3), pages 217-241, June.
    3. Chalk, Nigel A., 2000. "The sustainability of bond-financed deficits: An overlapping generations approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 293-328, April.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    5. Hauner, David, 2009. "Public debt and financial development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 171-183, January.
    6. Balibek, Emre & Köksalan, Murat, 2010. "A multi-objective multi-period stochastic programming model for public debt management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 205-217, August.
    7. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4341 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leo Kaas, 2016. "Public debt and total factor productivity," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 309-333, February.
    2. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gheorghiţă DINCĂ & Marius Sorin DINCĂ, 2015. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in the EU Post-Communist Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 119-132, June.
    4. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2019. "The Peril of Fiscal Rules," Post-Print hal-02314996, HAL.
    5. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1307, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    6. Benczes, Istvan, 2011. "Rules-based economic governance in the European Union: A reappraisal of national fiscal rules," MPRA Paper 34912, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
    8. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    9. Walter Paternesi Meloni, 2017. "Austerity & Competitiveness in the Eurozone: a misleading linkage," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0223, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
    10. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Kose M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge Franziska & Sugawara Naotaka, 2022. "A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 233-268, December.
    12. Bartak, Jakub & Jabłoński, Łukasz & Tomkiewicz, Jacek, 2022. "Does income inequality explain public debt change in OECD countries?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 211-224.
    13. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2018. "Debt dynamics in Europe: A Network General Equilibrium GVAR approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-202.
    14. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Causality between public debt, public debt service and economic growth: Evidence from South Africa," Working Papers 25745, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    15. Karl FARMER & Jacopo ZOTTI, 2009. "Sustainable Government Debt in a Two-Country, Two-Good Overlapping Generations Model," EcoMod2009 21500030, EcoMod.
    16. Qureshi, Irfan & Liaqat, Zara, 2020. "The long-term consequences of external debt: Revisiting the evidence and inspecting the mechanism using panel VARs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Jussi Lindgren, 2021. "Examination of Interest-Growth Differentials and the Risk of Sovereign Insolvency," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, April.
    18. Puhakka, Mikko, 2005. "The effects of aging population on the sustainability of fiscal policy," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 26/2005, Bank of Finland.
    19. Wiliński Witold, 2019. "Changes in the fiscal policy of EU states after the 2008 crisis," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 55(1), pages 52-65, March.
    20. Rafal Benecki & Jens Hölscher & Mariusz Jarmuzek, 2006. "Fiscal Transparency and Policy Rules in Poland," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0327, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    public debt; economic growth; public deficit; sustainability of the public finance; regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aio:aucsse:v:1:y:2011:i:10:p:100-109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anca Bandoi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fecraro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.