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Discrepancies: Why Do GDP Growth Rates Differ?

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  • Jerven, Morten

Abstract

Why do GDP growth rates differ? In this paper I show how GDP levels and growth estimates travel from national statistical offices to international databases maintained by international financial institutions as well as datasets maintained by scholars. It makes the point that, strictly speaking, these databases are secondary sources, and only through meticulous backward tracking of how different data series have travelled from statistical offices to international datasets can their quality be determined. Thus far, most research has focussed on the different biases or changes resulting from different methodologies of harmonisation, such as different methods of expressing series in international currencies. This paper emphasises the role of the uneven application of benchmark revisions, clerical errors, and political negotiation in accounting for discrepancies in different sources of reported GDP growth rates.
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  • Jerven, Morten, 2016. "Discrepancies: Why Do GDP Growth Rates Differ?," Review of Agrarian Studies, Foundation for Agrarian Studies, vol. 6(1), July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ragrar:308436
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.308436
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Morten Jerven, 2014. "African Growth Miracle or Statistical Tragedy?: Interpreting Trends in the Data Over the Past Two Decades," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2014-114, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    3. Antonio Ciccone & Marek Jarociński, 2010. "Determinants of Economic Growth: Will Data Tell?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 222-246, October.
    4. William Larson & Chris Papageorgiou & Arvind Subramania & Simon Johnson, 2009. "Is Newer Better? Penn World Table Revisions and the Growth Literature," 2009 Meeting Papers 858, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Pius Okigbo, 1962. "Nigerian National Accounts, 1950–7," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 1962(1), pages 285-306, March.
    6. Johnson, Simon & Larson, William & Papageorgiou, Chris & Subramanian, Arvind, 2013. "Is newer better? Penn World Table Revisions and their impact on growth estimates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 255-274.
    7. Alwyn Young, 2012. "The African Growth Miracle," NBER Working Papers 18490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Jerven, Morten, 2012. "An unlevel playing field: national income estimates and reciprocal comparison in global economic history," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 107-128, March.
    9. Axel Dreher & Silvia Marchesi & James Vreeland, 2008. "The political economy of IMF forecasts," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 145-171, October.
    10. World Bank, 2003. "World Development Indicators 2003," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13920, December.
    11. Alwyn Young, 2012. "The African Growth Miracle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(4), pages 696-739.
    12. Jerven, Morten, 2014. "African growth miracle or statistical tragedy? Interpreting trends in the data over the past two decades," WIDER Working Paper Series 114, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
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    Cited by:

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