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Local Sensitivity Analysis of Forecast Uncertainty in a Random-Utility-Based Multiregional Input-Output Model

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  • Wang, Guangmin
  • Kockelman, Kara M.

Abstract

Transportation systems are critical to regional economies and quality of life. The Random-Utility- Based Multiregional Input-Output Model (RUBMRIO) for trade and travel choices is used here to appreciate the distributed nature of commodity flow patterns across the United States’ 3,109 contiguous counties and 12 industry sectors, for rail and truck operations. This paper demonstrates the model’s sensitivity to various inputs using the method of local sensitivity analysis with interactions (LSAI). This work simulates both individual effects as well as interaction effects of model inputs on outputs by providing sensitivity indices of model outputs to variations of inputs under two scenarios. Model outputs include predictions of domestic and export trade flows, value of goods produced, labor expenditures, and household and industry consumption levels across the counties in the United States. The LSAI technique allows transportation system operators to appreciate the roles of any model input and the associated uncertainty of outputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Guangmin & Kockelman, Kara M., 2016. "Local Sensitivity Analysis of Forecast Uncertainty in a Random-Utility-Based Multiregional Input-Output Model," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 55(2), August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ndjtrf:262661
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.262661
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huang, Tian & Kockelman, Kara M., 2008. "The Introduction of Dynamic Features in a Random-Utility-Based Multiregional Input-Output Model of Trade, Production, and Location Choice," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 47(1).
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    3. A Anas, 1984. "Discrete Choice Theory and the General Equilibrium of Employment, Housing, and Travel Networks in a Lowry-Type Model of the Urban Economy," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 16(11), pages 1489-1502, November.
    4. Lefèvre, Benoit, 2009. "Long-term energy consumptions of urban transportation: A prospective simulation of "transport-land uses" policies in Bangalore," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 940-953, March.
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