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A General Equilibrium Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Demand Shocks Arising from Mad Cow Disease in the United States

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  • Devadoss, Stephen
  • Holland, David W.
  • Stodick, Leroy
  • Ghosh, Joydeep

Abstract

The discovery of the first case of mad cow disease in the United States in 2003 reverberated across the beef and cattle industry. This study employs a general equilibrium model to analyze the potential economic effects of mad cow disease on the beef, cattle, and other meat industries under three scenarios, ranging form most favorable to most pessimistic. The scenario with 90% foreign demand decline and 10% domestic demand reduction generates results consistent with the actual outcomes after the mad cow disease outbreak. Only if domestic demand declines significantly will the economic hardship in the U.S. beef and cattle industry be very large.

Suggested Citation

  • Devadoss, Stephen & Holland, David W. & Stodick, Leroy & Ghosh, Joydeep, 2006. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Demand Shocks Arising from Mad Cow Disease in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 1-13, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:8607
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.8607
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    2. Xue Peng & Fulin Wang & Jiquan Wang & Chang Qian, 2022. "Research on Food Safety Control Based on Evolutionary Game Method from the Perspective of the Food Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Wang, Zun & Sage, Jeremy & Goodchild, Anne & Jessup, Eric & Casavant, Kenneth & Knutson, Rachel L., 2013. "A Framework for Determining Highway Truck-Freight Benefits and Economic Impacts," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 52(2).
    4. Valentina G. Bruno & Bahattin Büyükşahin & Michel A. Robe, 2017. "The Financialization of Food?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264.
    5. John M. Marsh & Gary W. Brester & Vincent H. Smith, 2008. "Effects of North American BSE Events on U.S. Cattle Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 136-150.
    6. David Holland, 2010. "What happens when exports expand: some ideas for closure of regional computable general equilibrium models," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 45(2), pages 439-451, October.
    7. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stéphane, 2011. "Catastrophic risk and risk management, what do we know about livestock epidemics? State of the art and prospects," Working Papers 208108, Institut National de la recherche Agronomique (INRA), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2).
    8. Bumsoo Lee & Jiyoung Park & Peter Gordon & James E. Moore II & Harry W. Richardson, 2012. "Estimating the State-by-State Economic Impacts of a Foot-and-Mouth Disease Attack," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 35(1), pages 26-47, January.
    9. Christine Wieck & David Holland, 2010. "The economic effect of the Canadian BSE outbreak on the US economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 935-946.
    10. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stephane, 2011. "Livestock epidemics and catastrophic risk management: State of the art and prospects on economic dynamics," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Alexandre Cordier & Jean Gohin & Stephane Krebs & Arnaud Rault, 2013. "Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 480-492, March.
    12. Thomsen, Michael R. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Power, Gabriel J., 2009. "Volatility Surface and Skewness in Live Cattle Futures Price Distributions with Application to North American BSE Announcements," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49354, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Watson, Philip S. & Castelin, Kimberly & Salant, Priscilla & Wulfhorst, J.D., 2012. "Estimating the Impacts of a Reduction in the Foreign-born Labor Supply on a State Economy: A Nested CGE Analysis of the Idaho Economy," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 51-74, Spring.
    14. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Is factionalism a push for gold price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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