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Long Run Determinants Of Cereal Production In Ethiopia: Does Co2 Emission Matter?

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  • Wassie, Solomon Bizuayehu

Abstract

The study employed vector error correction model to examine the long run relationship between climate change and cereal production using time series data (1962-2014) in Ethiopia. The cointegrating equation shows that the parameters included in the model are jointly significant at 1% significant level. The study revealed that a 10% percent increase in CO2 emission would have 2.75 % cereal production loss in the country. However, land and fertilizer were found to have positive and significant long-term impact on cereal production in the country. The forecasted cereal production - using contingent equation – shows that cereal production is expected to grow annually by 2.8%, on average, for the next 10 years. As a concluding remark, efforts towards reducing CO2 should be strengthened to further enhance the cereal production growth in the country. Moreover, providing fertilizer for the farmers with a reasonable price on due time is decisive to benefit from intensive agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Wassie, Solomon Bizuayehu, 2017. "Long Run Determinants Of Cereal Production In Ethiopia: Does Co2 Emission Matter?," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 5(2), April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:ijfaec:266475
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.266475
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ibrahim Worku, 2011. "Road Sector Development and Economic Growth in Ethiopia," Working Papers 004, Policy Studies Institute.
    2. Samuel asuamah Yeboah & Lawrence Amponsah & Glory Kofi Hoggar, 2015. "Climate Change and Agriculture: Modeling the Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission on Cereal Yield in Ghana," Agriculture and Food Sciences Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 2(2), pages 32-38.
    3. Pervez Zamurrad Janjua & Ghulam Samad & Nazakat Ullah Khan, 2010. "Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Production: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 799-822.
    4. Harry M. Kaiser & Susan J. Riha & Daniel S. Wilks & David G. Rossiter & Radha Sampath, 1993. "A Farm-Level Analysis of Economic and Agronomic Impacts of Gradual Climate Warming," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(2), pages 387-398.
    5. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    6. Ibrahim Worku, 2011. "Road Sector Development and Economic Growth in Ethiopia," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 19(2), November.
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