Farmland Values And Credit Conditions

Farmland values for the Seventh Federal Reserve District rose 22 percent in the second quarter of 2022 from a year earlier, roughly matching the year-over-year gains of the previous two quarters. Values for “good” agricultural land were up 2 percent in the second quarter of 2022 from the first quarter, according to survey responses from 137 banks in the District. Twenty-five percent of the survey respondents forecasted higher District farmland values during the July through September period of 2022, and 4 percent forecasted lower values; given the greater share of optimistic nextquarter projections reported by the previous six surveys, the results from the most recent survey suggested shrinking expectations for farmland values to increase during the third quarter of 2022. Agricultural credit conditions for the District were better in the second quarter of 2022 than a year ago. Moreover, relative to a year earlier, the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic seemed to have somewhat receded in rural parts of the District. Fifty-six percent of the survey respondents indicated that their respective banks’ lending areas had been at least modestly affected by the pandemic during the past year (12 months ago, that share had been 72 percent). On average, 74 percent of the responding bankers’ agricultural borrowers were not affected by the pandemic over the same period. In the second quarter of 2022, repayment rates for non-real-estate farm loans improved from a year ago, continuing the pattern of the previous six quarters. The portion of the District’s agricultural loan portfolio reported as having “major” or “severe” repayment problems (1.9 percent) was tied for the fourth-lowest level on record for a second quarter. In addition, renewals and extensions of non-real-estate farm loans in the District were reduced from a year ago. For the April through June period of 2022, the demand for nonreal-estate farm loans was lower than a year earlier, while the level of funds available for lending by agricultural banks was higher than a year earlier—in line with the patterns of the previous seven quarters. Even so, for the second quarter of 2022, the District’s average loan-to-deposit ratio edged up to 67.0 percent, which was still the second-lowest reading since the third quarter of 2013. Average nominal interest rates on operating, feeder cattle, and farm real estate loans moved sharply higher during the second quarter of 2022, ending at their highest points since 2019.