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Agricultural trade liberalisation in the Doha Round: impacts on Spain

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  • Philippidis, George

Abstract

Whilst there is a growing literature of computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies examining the impacts of the current Doha Proposals, estimates for the EU are highly aggregated (i.e., EU15). Employing a detailed baseline scenario and a plausible Doha outcome, we examine the long run costs for the European Union, in particular focusing on Spain. Moreover, we implement recent CAP reforms through explicitly modelling of CAP mechanisms to provide greater credibility in assessing the long run asymmetric budgetary and welfare impacts on EU member states. Our estimates forecast resource substitution effects between Spanish agro-food sectors and resource shifts from agro-food activities into manufacturing and services production. In Spain, the impacts of proposed Amber box reductions on fishing subsidies and the relatively smaller GDP contribution result in negative CAP budgetary impacts on regional income. In contrast, France, Germany and the UK all realise small real income gains. Abstract. Los estudios de equilibrio general (EG) que examinan el impacto de las propuestas de la Ronda Doha se han centrado en la Unión Europea (UE) como un agregado. Partiendo de un escenario base detallado y un resultado plausible de las negociaciones de Doha, se examinan los costes a largo plazo para la UE, con especial énfasis en España. Se examinan además, las recientes reformas de la PAC para proporcionar una mayor credibilidad a la estimación de los efectos presupuestarios y sobre el bienestar de los países miembros. En España, el modelo predice una reorientación de los recursos desde el sector agro-alimentario hacia el manufacturero y de servicios. Asimismo, el impacto de la reducción en la caja Ámbar sobre los susbsidios a la pesca y la relativamente menor contribución al PIB conducen a impactos negativos del presupuesto de la PAC sobre la renta regional. Por el contrario, Francia, Alemania y el Reino Unido se benefician de pequeñas ganancias reales en renta. Palabras Claves: Ronda de Doha, España, UE, PAC, Equilibrio General.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippidis, George, 2005. "Agricultural trade liberalisation in the Doha Round: impacts on Spain," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 5(10), pages 1-28.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:earnsa:28790
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.28790
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    References listed on IDEAS

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