IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/bdbjaf/304083.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Econometric Investigation Of Short-Run And Long-Run Relationships Between Gdp And Agricultural Gdp Of Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Kabir, Md. Humayun

Abstract

The study is an attempt to investigate long-run and short-run relationships between gross domestic product (GDP) and agricultural GDP of Bangladesh applying the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The data published by the BBS for the period 1972-73 to 2015-16 was used. As preconditions of VECM, the stationarity of the time series data and co-integration of the variables were tested. The GDP and agricultural GDP in logarithm forms were found integrated of the order one (d=1) and co-integration of rank one (r=1).The coefficient (beta) of estimated long-run equilibrium equation was positive and significant implying a long-run equilibrium relationship between GDP and agricultural GDP. A positive and significant time trend was also observed in the co-integrating equation. Both coefficients (alpha) of the error correction terms (ECTs) in the VECM, which indicate the rates of short-run adjustments towards the long-run equilibrium, were negative and significant confirming consistency with the theory. Since both ECTs were negative and significant, there was a long-run bi-directional causality running from agricultural GDP to GDP and vice-versa. Responding to a positive shock in agricultural GDP, the GDP gradually increases while due to shock in GDP, the agricultural GDP decreases in the initial stage and increases gradually thereafter. Various post-estimation specification tests were performed and the estimated parameters of the model were found consistent and efficient.

Suggested Citation

  • Kabir, Md. Humayun, 2019. "Econometric Investigation Of Short-Run And Long-Run Relationships Between Gdp And Agricultural Gdp Of Bangladesh," Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Economics, Bangladesh Agricultural University, vol. 39(1&2), December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:bdbjaf:304083
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.304083
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/304083/files/Paper-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.304083?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-27752-1, September.
    2. Gollin, Douglas, 2010. "Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: Robert Evenson & Prabhu Pingali (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 73, pages 3825-3866, Elsevier.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad AJMAIR & Khadim HUSSAIN & Sabahat AKRAM & Ambreen ZEB, 2017. "What determines the growth of services sector in Pakistan? A comparison of ARDL bound testing and time varying parametric estimation with general to specific approach," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 308-319, September.
    2. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact of Vegetables Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 72-87, December.
    3. Ijaz Ur Rehman & Nurul Shahnaz Mahdzan & Rozaimah Zainudin, 2016. "Is the relationship between macroeconomy and stock market liquidity mutually reinforcing? Evidence from an emerging market," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 294-316.
    4. Helal Uddin & Md. Hasanur Rahman & Shapan Chandra Majumder, 2022. "The impact of agricultural production and remittance inflows on economic growth in Bangladesh using ARDL technique," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 1-25, April.
    5. Sa-ngasoongsong, Akkarapol & Bukkapatnam, Satish T.S. & Kim, Jaebeom & Iyer, Parameshwaran S. & Suresh, R.P., 2012. "Multi-step sales forecasting in automotive industry based on structural relationship identification," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 875-887.
    6. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
    7. Naseem, N.A.M & Tan, Hui-Boon & Hamizah, M.S, 2008. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Volatility and Import Flows in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 41571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Michel DIMOU & Alexandra SCHAFFAR & Zhihong CHEN & Shihe FU, 2008. "LA CROISSANCE URBAINE CHINOISE RECONSIDeReE," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 27, pages 109-131.
    9. Maswana, Jean-Claude, 2006. "An empirical investigation around the finance-growth puzzle in China with a particular focus on causality and efficiency considerations," MPRA Paper 3946, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2006.
    10. Bakari, Sayef, 2019. "Do Agricultural Raw Materials Imports Cause Agricultural Growth? Empirical Analysis from North Africa," Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, BETA Journals, vol. 4(2), pages 65-77, December.
    11. Chebbi, Houssem Eddine & Lachaal, Lassaad, 2007. "Agricultural Sector and Economic Growth in Tunisia: Evidence from Co-integration and Error Correction Mechanism," 103rd Seminar, April 23-25, 2007, Barcelona, Spain 9416, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Muhammad Zia Ullah Khan & Muhammad Illyas & Muqqadas Rahman & Chaudhary Abdul Rahman, 2015. "Money Monetization and Economic Growth in Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(4), pages 184-192, April.
    13. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    14. Miguel Ramirez & Shahryar Khan, 1999. "A cointegration analysis of purchasing power parity: 1973–96," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(3), pages 369-385, August.
    15. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    16. Verónica Cañal-Fernández & Julio Tascón Fernández, 2018. "The long run impact of foreign direct investment, exports, imports and GDP: evidence for Spain from an ARDL approach," Working Papers 0128, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    17. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2018. "Sustainable Financing for Sustainable Development: Understanding the Interrelations between Public Investment and Sovereign Debt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-25, October.
    18. Wei Zhang & Sayed Saghaian & Michael Reed, 2022. "Influences of Power Structure Evolution on Coffee Commodity Markets: Insights from Price Discovery and Volatility Spillovers," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-27, November.
    19. Ely, David & Salehizadeh, Mehdi, 2001. "American depositary receipts: An analysis of international stock price movements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 343-363.
    20. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:2:p:157-168 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Choi-Meng Leong & Chin-Hong Puah & Shazali Abu Mansor & Evan Lau, 2010. "Testing the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in Malaysia Using Alternative Monetary Aggregation," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(3), pages 321-338, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:bdbjaf:304083. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/febaubd.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.