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Analysing drought impacts and recovery options by adapting a dairy farming systems modelling approach

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  • Armstrong, Dan P.
  • Ho, Christie K.M.
  • Doyle, Peter T.
  • Malcolm, Bill
  • Gibb, I.
  • Brown, Stuart

Abstract

The dairy industry in northern Victoria faced dramatic changes between 2001/02 and 2002/03. Drought resulted in a substantial decrease in availability, and subsequent increase in price, of irrigation water and supplementary feed. Most farms recorded substantial net cash flow deficits. Prior to 2002/03, a project had been established using case studies and a spreadsheet model to examine potential futures for different farm types. This approach was successfully adapted to examine drought impacts and recovery options under the vastly different prevailing circumstances. Several factors appear to have contributed to the adaptability of the approach, as follows: • The approach considered many aspects of farm management systems, but was simple enough to allow adaptation. • The project team and steering committee had developed a good understanding of the relationships between components of farming systems, enabling rapid adaptation of their mental frameworks. • The approach focussed more on helping people question, discuss and learn, rather than providing an absolute answer.

Suggested Citation

  • Armstrong, Dan P. & Ho, Christie K.M. & Doyle, Peter T. & Malcolm, Bill & Gibb, I. & Brown, Stuart, 2005. "Analysing drought impacts and recovery options by adapting a dairy farming systems modelling approach," AFBM Journal, Australasian Farm Business Management Network, vol. 2(1), pages 1-6.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:afbmau:123136
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.123136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McCown, R. L., 2002. "Changing systems for supporting farmers' decisions: problems, paradigms, and prospects," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 179-220, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Armstrong, Dan P. & Ho, Christie K.M., 2009. "Economic impact of switching to once-a-day milking on a dairy farm in northern Victoria," AFBM Journal, Australasian Farm Business Management Network, vol. 6(1), pages 1-8, October.
    2. Tocker, Jonathon & Malcolm, Bill & Heard, J. & Sinnett, A. & Ho, C. & Behrendt, R., 2013. "Profit, cash, wealth and risk implications of changes to a prime lamb business in south-west Victoria," AFBM Journal, Australasian Farm Business Management Network, vol. 10, pages 1-27.
    3. Malcolm, Bill & Ho, Christie K.M. & Armstrong, Dan P. & Doyle, Peter T. & Tarrant, Katherine A. & Heard, J.W. & Leddin, C.M. & Wales, W.J., 2012. "Dairy Directions: a decade of whole farm analysis of dairy systems," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 20, pages 1-20.
    4. Tocker, Jonathon & Malcolm, B. & Heard, J. & Ho, C. & Behrendt, R., 2022. "Profitable Sheep Farming in South-west Victoria: Specialisation or Diversification Under Volatile Prices, Costs and Climate," AFBM Journal, Australasian Farm Business Management Network, vol. 19(1), April.
    5. Marnie Griffith, 2010. "Culling dairy cows as a response to drought in northern Victoria," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-200, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

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