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The Case for Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy

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Author Info
Michael Woodford

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Abstract

At central banks around the world, including the Bank of England, Sweden's Riksbank, Norway's Norges Bank, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, policy is conducted on the basis of "inflation-forecast targeting": the central bank constructs quantitative projections of the economy's expected future evolution based on the way in which it intends to control short-term interest rates, and public discussion of those projections plays a critical role in justifying the banks' conduct of monetary policy to the public. What accounts for the appeal of this approach? Should it be adopted more widely or more explicitly? I review the long-running debate between proponents of monetary rules and proponents of discretionary monetary policy and argue that inflation-forecast targeting represents a powerful synthesis of the two approaches. I explore some common questions that arise about inflation-forecast targeting and consider how the U.S. Federal Reserve might move toward an explicit policy of inflation-forecast targeting.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 21 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (Fall)
Pages: 3-24
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Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:21:y:2007:i:4:p:3-24

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  1. Orlowski, Lucjan T, 2008. "Stages of the 2007/2008 Global Financial Crisis: Is There a Wandering Asset-Price Bubble?," MPRA Paper 12696, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Chadha, J.S. & Corrado, L. & Holly, S., 2008. "Reconnecting Money to Inflation: The Role of the External Finance Premium," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0852, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009. "Credit Spreads and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 15289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Felton, Andrew, 2008. "The First Global Financial Crisis of the 21st Century," MPRA Paper 11862, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lucjan T. Orlowski, 2008. "Stages of the Ongoing Global Financial Crisis: Is There a Wandering Asset Bubble?," IWH Discussion Papers 11-08, Halle Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Baldursson, Fridrik M. & Hall, Axel, 2008. "Out of reach? Convergence to an inflation target in the Central Bank of Iceland's macroeconomic model," MPRA Paper 13930, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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