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In Praise of Confidence Intervals

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  • David Romer

Abstract

Most empirical papers in economics focus on two aspects of their results: whether the estimates are statistically significantly different from zero and the interpretation of the point estimates. This focus obscures important information about the implications of the results for economically interesting hypotheses about values of the parameters other than zero, and in some cases, about the strength of the evidence against values of zero. This limitation can be overcome by reporting confidence intervals for papers' main estimates and discussing their economic interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • David Romer, 2020. "In Praise of Confidence Intervals," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 55-60, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:55-60
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201059
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    1. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2019. "Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, May.
    2. Card, David, 2001. "Estimating the Return to Schooling: Progress on Some Persistent Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1127-1160, September.
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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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