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The Global Financial Cycle after Lehman

Author

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  • Silvia Miranda-Agrippino
  • Hélène Rey

Abstract

Did the effect of US monetary policy on the global financial cycle change after the crisis? We analyze the international transmission of the Fed's policy shocks since 2009. We find similar effects for the policies that act mostly on the short end of the US yield curve. But there is evidence of potent information effects active at the long end. Lower ten-year Treasury yields are associated with weaker global financial activity and flight to safety. The information content of the VIX may have changed substantially since the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Hélène Rey, 2020. "The Global Financial Cycle after Lehman," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 523-528, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:110:y:2020:p:523-28
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201096
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    2. Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Christian T. Lundblad, 2020. "Capital Flows in Risky Times: Risk-On / Risk-Off and Emerging Market Tail Risk," Research Working Paper RWP 20-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. Cerutti, Eugenio M. & Obstfeld, Maurice & Zhou, Haonan, 2021. "Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Lastauskas, Povilas & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2023. "Global impacts of US monetary policy uncertainty shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2021. "Capital flow waves—or ripples? Extreme capital flow movements since the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    6. Chari, Anusha & Dilts-Stedman, Karlye & Forbes, Kristin, 2022. "Spillovers at the extremes: The macroprudential stance and vulnerability to the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Christian Friedrich & Pierre Guérin & Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2020. "Monetary Policy Independence and the Strength of the Global Financial Cycle," Staff Working Papers 20-25, Bank of Canada.
    8. Burcu Erik & Marco J. Lombardi & Dubravko Mihaljek & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "The Dollar, Bank Leverage, and Real Economic Activity: An Evolving Relationship," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 110, pages 529-534, May.
    9. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs-Garzon & Jorge M. Uribe, 2020. "Global effects of US uncertainty: real and financial shocks on real and financial markets," IREA Working Papers 202015, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2020.
    10. Özmen, Erdal & Taşdemir, Fatma, 2021. "Gross capital inflows and outflows: Twins or distant cousins?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    11. Badics, Milan Csaba & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Kotro, Balazs B., 2023. "The impact of crisis periods and monetary decisions of the Fed and the ECB on the sovereign yield curve network," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Rodríguez, Gabriel & Vassallo, Renato & Castillo B., Paul, 2023. "Effects of external shocks on macroeconomic fluctuations in Pacific Alliance countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Zhang, Mi & Sensoy, Ahmet & Cheng, Feiyang & Zhao, Xuankai, 2022. "Three channels of monetary policy international transmission: Identifying spillover effects from the US to China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    14. Christoph Kaufmann, 2023. "Investment Funds, Monetary Policy, and the Global Financial Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 593-636.
    15. Arango-Castillo, Lenin & Orraca, María José & Molina, G. Stefano, 2023. "The global component of headline and core inflation in emerging market economies and its ability to improve forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    16. Yang, Yang & Tang, Yanling & Cheng, Kai, 2023. "Spillback effects of US unconventional monetary policy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    17. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    18. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Xu, Nancy, 2023. "Risk, Monetary Policy and Asset Prices in a Global World," CEPR Discussion Papers 18229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Sokol, Andrej, 2022. "Financial shocks, credit spreads, and the international credit channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    20. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Keddad, Benjamin & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2022. "The influence of the renminbi and its macroeconomic determinants: A new Chinese monetary order in Asia?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    22. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    23. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jarociński, Marek, 2023. "Global spillovers from multi-dimensional US monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2881, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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