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Understanding the Link between Temperature and Crime

Author

Listed:
  • François Cohen
  • Fidel Gonzalez

Abstract

The correlation between hot weather and crime is well documented but not fully understood. We combine millions of administrative records, victimization surveys on unreported crime, and daily weather information to analyze the effect of temperatures on crime in Mexico. We find that sample selection cannot explain the observed positive correlation between temperature and crime. Moreover, we find that shifts in alcohol consumption and time use on weekends are responsible for 28 percent of temperature-induced crimes. We also observe changes in the hour and location of crimes, providing new evidence on the importance of time use as a determinant of crime.

Suggested Citation

  • François Cohen & Fidel Gonzalez, 2024. "Understanding the Link between Temperature and Crime," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 480-514, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:16:y:2024:i:2:p:480-514
    DOI: 10.1257/pol.20220118
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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