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Generalizing the Taylor Principle

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Author Info
Troy Davig
Eric M. Leeper

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Abstract

The paper generalizes the Taylor principle—the proposition that central banks can stabilize the macroeconomy by raising their interest rate instrument more than one-for-one in response to higher inflation—to an environment in which reaction coefficients in the monetary policy rule change regime, evolving according to a Markov process. We derive a long-run Taylor principle which delivers unique bounded equilibria in two standard models. Policy can satisfy the Taylor principle in the long run, even while deviating from it substantially for brief periods or modestly for prolonged periods. Macroeconomic volatility can be higher in periods when the Taylor principle is not satisfied, not because of indeterminacy, but because monetary policy amplifies the impacts of fundamental shocks. Regime change alters the qualitative and quantitative predictions of a conventional new Keynesian model, yielding fresh interpretations of existing empirical work. (JEL E31, E43, E52)

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1257/aer.97.3.607
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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 97 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 607-635
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:97:y:2007:i:3:p:607-635

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Farmer, Roger E A & Waggoner, Daniel F & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Indeterminacy in a Forward Looking Regime Switching Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 5919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Are Constant Interest Rate Forecasts Modest Interventions? Evidence from an Estimated Open Economy DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 180, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "How good is what you've got? DSGE-VAR as a toolkit for evaluating DSGE models," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 2, pages 21-37. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Bennett McCallum, 2004. "On the Relationship Between Determinate and MSV Solutions in Linear RE Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Carlo Favero & Tommaso Monacelli, . "Fiscal Policy Rules and Regime (In)Stability: Evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 282, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Favero, Carlo A & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2003. "Monetary-Fiscal Mix and Inflation Performance: Evidence from the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 3887, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Working Paper 2003-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1995. "Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 176-208, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2005. "A search for a structural Phillips curve," Staff Reports 203, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  22. David Andolfatto & Paul Gomme, 2003. "Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-30, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Why the Federal Reserve Should Adopt Inflation Targeting," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 117-127, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory," NBER Working Papers 11212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2006. "Endogenous Monetary Policy Regime Change," NBER Working Papers 12405, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2005. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy," Working Papers 93, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  27. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2008. "Empirical Properties Of Closed- And Open-Economy Dsge Models Of The Euro Area," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(S1), pages 2-19, April. [Downloadable!]
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  29. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Testing for Indeterminacy:An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," Economics Working Paper Archive 480, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics, revised Jun 2003. [Downloadable!]
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  30. Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules and the U.S. Business Cycle: Evidence and Implications," IMF Working Papers 04/164, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luca Benati and Paolo Surico, 2007. "Vector Autoregression Analysis and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 18, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. William A. Branch & Troy Davig & Bruce McGough, 2007. "Expectational stability in regime-switching rational expectations models," Research Working Paper RWP 07-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  3. Fabián Gredig, 2007. "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Rules and the Achievement of the Inflation Target: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 451, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  4. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Generalizing the Taylor principle: comment," Working Paper 2008-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  5. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2007. "Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited," Economics Working Papers 1084, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
  6. Svan Jari Stehn & David Vines, 2007. "Debt Stabilisation Bias And The Taylor Principle: Optimal Policy In A New Keynesian Model With Government Debt And Inflation Persistence," CAMA Working Papers 2007-22, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Understanding the New-Keynesian Model when Monetary Policy Switches Regimes," NBER Working Papers 12965, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Davide Debortoli & Ricardo Nunes, 2008. "The macroeconomic effect of external pressures on monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 944, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Inflation Determination With Taylor Rules: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 13409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. John H. Cochrane, 2007. "Identification with Taylor Rules: A Critical Review," NBER Working Papers 13410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Daniel L. Thornton, 2007. "The unusual behavior of the federal funds and 10-year Treasury rates: a conundrum or Goodhart’s Law?," Working Papers 2007-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  13. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2008. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Working Paper 2008-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  14. Roger E.A. Farmer & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2007. "Indeterminacy in a forward-looking regime-switching model," Working Paper 2006-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Castelnuovo , Efrem & Greco , Luciano & Raggi, Davide, 2008. "Estimating regime-switching Taylor rules with trend inflation," Research Discussion Papers 20/2008, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  17. Alexander Mihailov, 2007. "Does Instrument Independence Matter under the Constrained Discretionof an Inflation Targeting Goal? Lessons from UK Taylor Rule Empirics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 95, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  18. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000057, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Josephine M. Smith & John B. Taylor, 2007. "The Long and the Short End of the Term Structure of Policy Rules," NBER Working Papers 13635, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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