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Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially Measured News Surprises

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  • Refet S. Gürkaynak
  • Burçin Kisacikoğlu
  • Jonathan H. Wright

Abstract

Macroeconomic news announcements are elaborate and multi-dimensional. We consider a framework in which jumps in asset prices around announcements reflect both the response to observed surprises in headline numbers and to latent factors, reflecting other news in the release. Non-headline news, for which there are no expectations surveys, is unobservable to the econometrician but nonetheless elicits a market response. We estimate the model by the Kalman filter, which efficiently combines OLS and heteroskedasticity-based event study estimators in one step. With the inclusion of a single latent surprise factor, essentially all yield curve variance in event windows are explained by news.

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  • Refet S. Gürkaynak & Burçin Kisacikoğlu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020. "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially Measured News Surprises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(12), pages 3871-3912, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:110:y:2020:i:12:p:3871-3912
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20181470
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    2. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Working Papers 22-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Fatum, Rasmus & Hattori, Takahiro & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2023. "Reserves and risk: Evidence from China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Christian Conrad & Julius Theodor Schoelkopf & Nikoleta Tushteva, 2023. "Long-Term Volatility Shapes the Stock Market’s Sensitivity to News," Working Paper series 23-16, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    7. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    8. Sun, Rongrong, 2020. "Monetary policy announcements and market interest rates’ response: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    9. Christoph E. Boehm & T. Niklas Kroner, 2020. "The US, Economic News, and the Global Financial Cycle," Working Papers 677, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    10. Ferreira, Leonardo N., 2022. "Forward guidance matters: Disentangling monetary policy shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    11. Pallotti, Filippo & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Slacalek, Jiri & Tristani, Oreste & Violante, Giovanni L., 2023. "Who bears the costs of inflation? Euro area households and the 2021–2022 shock," Working Paper Series 2877, European Central Bank.
    12. Cieslak, Anna & Pang, Hao, 2020. "Common shocks in stocks and bonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 14708, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Arbatli-Saxegaard, Elif & Furceri, Davide & Gonzalez Dominguez, Pablo & Ostry, Jonathan & Peiris, Shanaka, 2022. "Spillovers from US Monetary Shocks: Role of Policy Drivers and Cyclical Conditions," ADBI Working Papers 1317, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    14. Jeon, Yoontae & McCurdy, Thomas H. & Zhao, Xiaofei, 2022. "News as sources of jumps in stock returns: Evidence from 21 million news articles for 9000 companies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 1-17.
    15. Canetg, Fabio & Kaufmann, Daniel, 2022. "Overnight rate and signalling effects of central bank bills," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    16. Luca Brugnolini & Antonello D’Agostino & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "Is Anything Predictable in Market-Based Surprises?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(3), pages 387-410, November.
    17. Ostapenko, Nataliia, 2020. "Central Bank Communication: Information and Policy shocks," MPRA Paper 101278, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Jun 2020.
    18. Cieslak, Anna & Pang, Hao, 2021. "Common shocks in stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 880-904.
    19. Kerssenfischer, Mark & Schmeling, Maik, 2022. "What moves markets?," Discussion Papers 16/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Xu Zhang, 2021. "A New Measure of Monetary Policy Shocks," Staff Working Papers 21-29, Bank of Canada.
    21. Bruno Feunou & James Kyeong & Raisa Leiderman, 2018. "Markets Look Beyond the Headline," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-37, Bank of Canada.
    22. Daniel J. Lewis, 2019. "Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Macroeconomic Effects," Staff Reports 891, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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